Flyers vs. Capitals: Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Breakdown

By Bob Herpen

Philadelphia Flyers: 4^th place, Atlantic; 6^th in Eastern Conference (42-29-11, 95 points).

Washington Capitals: 1^st place, Southeast; 3^rd in Eastern Conference (43-31-8, 94 points).

POSTSEASON HISTORY: Washington has won two of the three prior playoff meetings.

The first came in a three-game opening round sweep in 1984 in Bobby Clarke’s last season as a player. The second matchup, in 1988, saw the Flyers take a three-games-to-one series lead only to see the Caps win the series, in an epic Game Seven overtime on a goal by Dale Hunter. Philly exacted revenge in the last series the following season as the fourth-place Flyers club upended the Patrick Division-winning Capitals in six games.

OFFENSE: The obvious question for Washington is, can one man do it alone? Based on past history, the answer is yes – if you’re named Mario Lemieux, Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier or Joe Sakic. Alex Ovechkin is

not yet anywhere close to that Pantheon, but he is very dangerous.

Numerous coaches and opponents have said they fear how Ovie “attacks the game,” as a one-man wrecking crew but he has help in Alexander Semin (26 goals), the surprising Brooks Laich (21), defenseman Mike Green (18 goals, 56 points) and emerging young star Nicklas Backstrom, who finished second in the league in rookie scoring (69 points).

For the Flyers, finding offense shouldn’t be difficult. With six players scoring 20-or-more goals and eight with 10 or more through a full season, contributions are expected from the top three lines regardless of defensive

responsibility. The way John Stevens has been juggling lines, you’d think that virtually any combination is bound to come through with a clutch score.

Nonetheless, the Flyers only scored four-or-more goals in regulation four times since late January, with three of those coming against the New York Islanders. Jeff Carter cannot afford to float and must retain the same focus which aided his strong finish to the season. The Capitals showed killer instinct in dropping double-digits on the playoff-bound Bruins and were credited with 65 goals over their final 16 games.

Nine guys on three lines who can play both ends will eventually out-gun two lines.

Edge: Slight to Philadelphia

DEFENSE: Even if the Flyers fail to live up to Priority One in stopping Ovechkin and he breaks loose at some point, it should be easy for Philly’s veteran defensemen to throw a blanket over shrinking violet Sergei Fedorov and the Caps’ inexperienced forwards.

Kimmo Timmonen, Derian Hatcher, Jason Smith and even Braydon Coburn know how to get under the opposition’s skin. The former three all possess valuable playoff savvy along with the slightly infirm Jaroslav Modry, who will be a valuable extra on the backline.

Green vaulted into the spot that free-agent pick-up Tom Poti was supposed to have filled, both offensively and defensively. Shaone Morrisonn may be the only d-man the Flyers will have to contend with, as he does not back down from anyone at any time. The remainder of the defense will face stiff tests with three lines forcing the play in all zones. Washington will sorely miss Brian Pothier, a former Ottawa troublemaker, who is still recovering from a concussion.

Edge: Philadelphia

GOALTENDING: Aside from Ovechkin, the major factor in the Caps’ meteoric rise to the top of their division after an 11-1-0 stretch to end the season were the men in the crease.

Cristobal Huet came over from the Montreal Canadiens at the trade deadline in late February, and went 11-2-0 with a 1.63 GAA and a pair of shutouts, most likely earning him the starting nod. Backing that up is the eternal veteran Olie Kolzig, who went 25-21-6 with a 2.91 GAA and one shutout.

For the Flyers, Martin Biron was solid overall but unspectacular through stretches. He completed the year one win shy of his career best in wins, going 30-20-9, 2.59, with five shutouts. His five best performances of the season might have come in each of those whitewashes, saving his best for the back-to-back blankings of New Jersey and Pittsburgh last Friday and Sunday.

Biron has never started a Stanley Cup playoff game in his career, and Antero Niittymaki is a wild card when it comes to relief appearances or an actual start. On the other hand, Huet possesses some mental toughness coming from the crucible in Montreal, plus Kolzig has Cup finals experience should Huet’s run of luck be over.

Edge: Washington

INTANGIBLES: Say what you want about Sergei Fedorov and his capabilities beyond the offensive zone, but he brings three Stanley Cup rings to a team desperate for some veteran leadership and experience. The Capitals may also be dangerous, because, being so young, they have no clue they’re not supposed to be doing so well.

One quirk of the season series is that each team won twice on the other’s home ice. This may bode well for the Flyers, who face two in DC before coming home and won both games using their best mix of physical play and offensive opportunism. The Capitals have won four straight regular-season games at the Wachovia Center, both when burying the sleepwalking Flyers early and then hanging on.

Bruce Boudreau has done a masterful job taking over at Thanksgiving for the constantly overmatched Glen Hanlon. His mix of constructive criticism and positive reinforcement had an explosive effect on the club.

Conversely, John Stevens has been the subject of constant consternation and his job security may have been questioned at times during the year. While the Capitals enjoy the honeymoon of being a young team without expectations, the Flyers bear the burden of a once-proud franchise having to go full reverse to erase an NHL-worst campaign a year ago.

The fact that both men behind the bench have no prior NHL playoff experience is a wash. If Scott Hartnell doesn’t stay out of the penalty box it could be an uphill climb for Flyers penalty killers.

Edge: Washington

OVERALL:

The Flyers have too much depth, more balanced scoring, a defense which is steadier and more experienced to be taken down by one 65-goal scorer and the stereotypical dangerous “hot goalie.” Washington’s season-ending stretch was impressive, but came predominantly on the backs of its Southeast Division foes – none of which made the postseason.

While the Capitals didn’t get where they are just because of a weak division, the Flyers have the added advantage of beginning the series on the road with the pressure off. If Philadelphia expects to avoid a drawn-out set, they should come away with at least one win at the Verizon Center before a raving crowd welcomes them home.

While Washington’s youth and exuberance can put the Flyers in a corner, on-ice experience will be the most telling factor. The Flyers veterans own that advantage in key spots, and their young players have come through too much in the regular season to let a little playoff pressure defeat them.

FINAL COUNT: Flyers in six.