Tuesday, October 20, 2009

2009-10 NBA Predictions: Lakers in line to repeat

By John McMullen

Philadelphia, PA - I just came off a nice little sports weekend.

First I enjoyed five hours of stress-inducing, give-and-take American League Championship Series action as the New York Yankees edged the LA Angels in 13 innings on Saturday, and followed that by watching Brett Favre and Joe Flacco duel in a thriller at Mall of America Field in Minneapolis a day later.

None of that could possibly match what was going on at Arena Monterrey, however.

Mexico's most modern building was housing preseason NBA basketball and Andre Iguodala led the Philadelphia 76ers over the Phoenix Suns in an instant classic, sure to be shown time and time again in the coming years on NBA TV.

Hopefully, you understand sarcasm.

The NBA's preseason is as meaningless as it gets but the light is finally shining at the end of the tunnel and the train is closing fast. The Association kicks off for real on Tuesday, Oct. 27 with a four-game slate capped by the defending champion LA Lakers facing off with their co-tenants at Staples Center, the improved LA Clippers.

So, it's that time of the year where we gaze into the crystal ball and predict just what is going to happen when the replacement refs blow the first of what figures to be many whistles.

The power players haven't shifted all that much in the offseason. The Lakers, Cleveland and Boston are still the class of the league. Meanwhile, the return of a healthy Manu Ginobili, along with the addition of Richard Jefferson, likely means San Antonio will also claw its way back to the big boy table.

Orlando, meanwhile, took a step back after moving the unselfish Hedo Turkoglu in a sign-and-trade to Toronto and replacing him with the me-first Vince Carter, while Houston will flounder without All-Star center Yao Ming, who will likely miss the entire season with a foot injury.

If you are looking for improvement, start in the nation's capital where Washington gets Gilbert Arenas back and now has a big-time coach in Flip Saunders.

As for the personal hardware. I see great things on the horizon for Clippers rookie Blake Griffin and you can except "The King" to keep his crown as the NBA's Most Valuable Player for another year.

Here goes nothing.

A look at the 2009-10 NBA season...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Cleveland (Central Division Winner); 2. Boston (Atlantic); 3. Orlando (Southeast); 4. Atlanta; 5. Chicago; 6. Washington; 7. Miami; 8. Philadelphia

EAST CHAMPION: Cleveland

I have been going back and forth between Boston and Cleveland in recent days. Understand the Celtics were 41-9 and ahead of both the Lakers and the Cavs for the best record in the league when Kevin Garnett went down with a knee injury last season. The C's finished a more-than-respectable 21-11 without "The Big Ticket" but obviously something was missing.

Boston is a veteran team that will likely be hungry to prove it is a legitimate title threat again. Staying healthy will be the key. Garnett is coming off the injury and there is no guarantee he will bring the same explosiveness back to the court. Meanwhile, Ray Allen and Rasheed Wallace are another year older.

If the Celtics can sport a finishing five of Garnett, Paul Pierce, Wallace, Allen and Rajon Rondo on a consistent basis, it will be tough for anyone to match up. That said, the Cavs should cruise through the regular season again, especially if Shaquille O'Neal proves to be a solid second option to LeBron James. Boston is more well-rounded but Cleveland has "The King."

Advantage Cavs.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. LA Lakers (Pacific); 2. Denver (Northwest); 3. San Antonio (Southwest); 4. Portland; 5. New Orleans; 6. Utah; 7. Dallas; 8. Phoenix

WEST CHAMPION: LA Lakers

On paper, Ron Artest's addition to a nucleus that was already a championship club makes LA the favorite to repeat as the top team in the West. Artest is an All-Star type player that must accept a lesser role on a far more talented team than he is used to.

That's where Phil Jackson comes in. Jackson's numbers and accomplishments can't be questioned. He's never been a great X's and O's guy, so why is he 44-0 in the postseason when his team gets Game 1? Why does he have 10 rings? Because he manages egos better than anyone else.

This Lakers team is so good they could make a run at 70 wins if that piques their interest.

NBA FINALS CHAMPION: LA Lakers

Chalk is never any fun but the Lakers are the defending champs and essentially replaced a nice role player in Trevor Ariza with an All-Star in Artest. If I've learned anything from Ric Flair, its this: "To be the man you have to beat the man," and nobody is beating a healthy Lakers team.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER - LeBron James, Cleveland

The 24-year-old James is now in an annual battle with the Lakers' Kobe Bryant for the right to be called the NBA's best player. Bryant's supporting cast includes Pau Gasol. Lamar Odom and Artest, while James has an aging O'Neal and Mo Williams. "The King" is simply forced to do more on the floor and that bodes well for an individual award like this.

Honorable Mention: Bryant; Chris Paul, New Orleans

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

I'm on record saying this year's selection pool reminds a lot of the 2000 draft that produced just two legitimate NBA stars, Milwaukee's Michael Redd, a second round pick, and Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu, the 16th overall selection by Sacramento. The top 10 that year featured names like Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer and DerMarr Johnson. You were ahead of the game if you snared a role player like Mike Miller, Joel Przybilla and Keyon Dooling, or a one-dimensional scorer that gravitates toward losing like Jamal Crawford.

It's hard to convict this year's group just yet, but it's not too early for an indictment. The 6-foot-10, 250-pound Griffin combines a rare work ethic with outstanding athleticism. He lacks polish on the low post, however, and isn't a can't-miss franchise guy like a James or Dwight Howard. Griffin really needs to work on his low-post skills to be a true superstar.

Honorable Mention: James Harden, Oklahoma City; Tyreke Evans, Sacramento; Jonny Flynn, Minnesota

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Dwight Howard, Orlando

I prefer a lock-down perimeter defender for this award, someone like Houston's Shane Battier, Bryant or Artest, but the voters seem enamored by blocked shots and intimidating interior defense. That describes Superman.

Honorable Mention: Battier; Bryant; Artest; Ariza

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR - Lamar Odom, LA Lakers

It's the usual suspects here with San Antonio's Manu Ginobili, Phoenix's Leandro Barbosa, Dallas' Jason Terry and Odom all possible winners.

But, I suspect Ginobili and Barbosa could spend quite a bit of time in their respective starting lineups, making it a two-horse race between Odom and Terry. Odom is simply a more well-rounded player than the offensive-minded Terry.

Honorable Mention: Ginobili; Terry; Barbosa; Ben Gordon, Detroit

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Elton Brand, Philadelphia

Brand, a two-time All-Star, was coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon that cost him most of his 2007-08 season and didn't look healthy when he took the floor with the Sixers last year. He also wasn't a good fit for the team's high-octane running game. A torn labrum in his right shoulder sidelined Brand again.

With Eddie Jordan and the Princeton offense now employed in Philly, the Sixers are hoping to finally garner a return on a massive investment. According to Jordan, Brand seems like a natural fit for the offense. He can pass, he has a nice mid-range jumper from the elbow, and he can move inside to the pivot at times. In fact, Jordan envisions Brand, Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young much in the same way Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler excelled in the offense in Washington.

Honorable Mention: Arenas

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER - Roy Hibbert, Indiana

Hibbert still has a long way to go offensively but has a chance to make an immediate impact on the defensive end. The Georgetown product has the athletic ability to dominate on the boards and possesses a nice, natural touch around the rim.

Honorable Mention: Anthony Randolph, Golden State; Lou Williams, Philadelphia; Greg Oden, Portland

COACH OF THE YEAR - Flip Saunders, Washington

Saunders is rarely mentioned when people talk about the NBA's best coaches since he never got over the hump in either Minnesota or Detroit. He may not be Gregg Popovich, Phil Jackson or Larry Brown, but he's leading the next level of coaches and should be a rather significant upgrade over Jordan or Ed Tapscott in the nation's capital.

Honorable Mention: Mike Dunleavy, LA Clippers; Phil Jackson, LA Lakers

ASSISTANT COACH OF THE YEAR - Tom Thibodeau, Boston

Thibodeau's defensive schemes are without peer. The 20-year coaching veteran helped the Houston Rockets rank among the top five in the league in scoring defense and field goal percentage defense from 2004 to 2007 before working his magic in Boston. Meanwhile, he has helped his teams finish in the league's Top 10 in team defense 16 times.

Honorable Mention: Phil Johnson, Utah; Dwane Casey, Dallas; Mike Budenholzer, San Antonio; Randy Wittman, Washington; Ron Adams, Oklahoma City;

EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR: Daryl Morey, Houston

Houston is in for a long season without Yao but Morey will keep them afloat. An MIT graduate, the 37-year-old Morey is considered to be one of the NBA's brightest young minds. He was nicknamed "Dork Elvis" by ESPN writer Bill Simmons for his popularity among MIT students where he taught an MBA-level course titled "Analytical Sports Management." Sounds impressive to me.

Honorable Mention: Mitch Kupchak, LA Lakers

MOST UNDERRATED ACQUISITION: Anthony Parker, Cleveland

With Delonte West battling depression, Parker becomes even more important for the Cavs. The 6-foot-6 Parker, who signed a two-year deal in the offseason, is more of a natural two-guard than West and brings plenty of starting experience from his time in Toronto.

Honorable Mention: Antonio McDyess, San Antonio; Andre Miller, Portland

MOST IMPROVED TEAM: Washington Wizards

Forward Antawn Jamison called last season's 19-win effort in Washington the most difficult of his 11-year career. Injuries to Arenas and center Brendan Haywood crippled Washington, and the paltry win total tied a franchise record for fewest wins in an 82-game season.

Bad luck followed the Wizards to the offseason and the lottery where the team had a 17.6 percent chance to get the No. 1 overall pick, but managed to fall out all the way to No. 5, the lowest possible pick for them. Despite the potholes, Saunders, one of the most underrated mentors in the league, will have little trouble improving on the 19 wins if Arenas and Haywood are back on the floor in 2009-10.

Honorable Mention: LA Clippers

BEST INTERNATIONAL PLAYER: Pau Gasol, LA Lakers

LA became an elite team again when it pulled off one of the big trades of the 2007-08 campaign, acquiring the seven-foot Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for an assorted group of flotsam. Gasol fits in great as a second option to Bryant and works very well with and the rest of his teammates.

The Spanish star uses his vaunted offensive skills and fundamentals to score at will on the low blocks and has become an underrated defender, torturing Howard with his length in the NBA Finals last season.

Honorable Mention: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas; Ginobili

RATING THE POINT GUARDS:

1. Chris Paul, New Orleans 2. Deron Williams, Utah 3. Tony Parker, San Antonio 4. Chauncey Billups. Denver 5. Steve Nash, Phoenix 6. Rajon Rondo, Boston 7. Jameer Nelson, Orlando 8. Devin Harris, New Jersey 9: Derrick Rose, Chicago 10. Andre Miller, Portland

RATING THE SHOOTING GUARDS:

1. Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers 2. Dwyane Wade, Miami 3. Brandon Roy, Portland 4. Joe Johnson, Atlanta 5. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 6. Ray Allen, Boston 7. Vince Carter, Orlando 8. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio 9. Kevin Martin, Sacramento 10. Rip Hamilton, Detroit

RATING THE CENTERS:

1. Dwight Howard, Orlando 2. Shaquille O'Neal, Cleveland 3. Al Jefferson, Minnesota 4. Brook Lopez, New Jersey 5. Al Horford, Atlanta 6. Mehmet Okur, Utah 7. Nene, Denver 8. Andris Biedrins, Golden State 9. Emeka Okafor, New Orleans 10. Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee

(ed. note - Yao Ming of Houston not rated because of injury)

RATING THE SMALL FORWARDS

1. LeBron James, Cleveland 2. Carmelo Anthony, Denver 3. Paul Pierce, Boston 4. Danny Granger, Indiana 5. Hedo Turkoglu, Toronto 6. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City 7. Caron Butler, Washington 8. Stephen Jackson, Golden State 9. Richard Jefferson, San Antonio 10. Ron Artest, LA Lakers

RATING THE POWER FORWARDS

1. Tim Duncan, San Antonio 2. Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers 3. Kevin Garnett, Boston 4. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 5. Amare'e Stoudemire, Phoenix 6. Chris Bosh, Toronto 7. David West, New Orleans 8. Carlos Boozer, Utah 9. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland 10. Elton Brand, Philadelphia

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