Friday, March 09, 2007

Making Drexel's Case

The Phanatic Magazine will unveil "Push to the Peach" starting Monday with columns, predictions, and region analysis. The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament begins Thursday.

By Jared Trexler
The Phanatic Magazine

If George Mason circa 2006 is any indication, the CAA can ball.

The Colonials obtained a tournament at-large -- to the ire of Billy Packer and his "big conference, big money" friends -- then went out and backed up the committee's decision in a big way.

Defeating Michigan State, North Carolina, Wichita State and Connecticut on its way to the Final Four, George Mason not only left a lasting image on the college hoops world, but paved the way for mid-major invitations to what has always been a black tie affair.

Enter Drexel, George Mason's Colonial Athletic Association compatriot and the most fascinating at-large candidate on the committee's board.

As we speak, the typical tubs of ice cream are being devoured as chairman Gary Walters and company debate the Dragons' resume.

To help our friends out -- and to possibly save them some time during a week of little sleep -- a neat, orderly, detailed list of Drexel's "In's" and "Out's" can be found below.

Then you decide. Should the Dragons dance?

In: The road warriors have 14 road/neutral court victories. That number is beyond NCAA Tournament worthy -- it's eye-dropping for any mid-major. And the victories aren't all over Architecture Tech and Communications U, but rather Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton -- all of which will be tournament bound come Sunday.

Out: Some bad, even bewildering losses. It began around Thanksgiving, a 19-point home loss to Pennsylvania followed by an eight-point defeat at Rider. The setback at season's end against middle-of-the pack William & Mary was also a killer.

In: Losses in context, and how they performed after them. The losses to the Quakers and Rider were early-season defeats followed by a 10-game winning streak that included six road victories (Nova, Syracuse, St. Joe's, Temple, Georgia State and James Madison). The Dragons bounced back from the loss to William & Mary by traveling to Omaha and beating Creighton just three days later.

Out: Conference finish. Fourth-place in what many consider the third/fourth best mid-major conference (definitely behind the Missouri Valley and Mountain West) just doesn't look good. Neither does a 1-5 record against the top three league finishers Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion and Hofstra. The bubble battle between the Dragons and Monarchs better not come down to head-to-head -- Old Dominion won both meetings.

In: Conference clout. As of late, the CAA has represented itself proudly in postseason tournaments. Excluding the Colonials' magical run, UNC-Wilmington took 26-2 George Washington to overtime in the first round last season, and Hofstra went to the NIT semifinals where it fell to -- Old Dominion. Interestingly enough, the CAA was the only conference that had a representative in the Preseason NIT semifinals (Drexel), Postseason NIT semifinals (Old Dominion), and the Final Four (George Mason).

Out: The bubble keeps getting smaller. The NCAA Tournament, much to the chagrin of Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim and select others, is a 64-team event. Wright State's Horizon League crown snatched an at-large because of Butler's inclusion in the field. Tourney-bound Nevada was stunned by Utah State earlier Friday as well, taking away another at-large bid.

In: The tournament committee will have a laundry list of questions to sift through before narrowing the at-large teams to a workable number for debate. Let's go through some of those pressing questions and attempt to provide answers.

Can it win on the road?
That was obviously answered above with a resounding "Yes." The 13 true road victories ties Vermont for most in the country.

Can it win in the spotlight?
Wins in front of 16,000+ fans at the Carrier Dome coupled with a national TV win at Creighton carry weight.

Did they heed the committee's advice and schedule tough games out of conference?
Drexel's non-conference RPI is in the top five, and we didn't even mention an early road victory over America East regular-season champion Vermont.

Out: In the end, the Dragons will be compared to Old Dominion. Hofstra doesn't have the non-league clout and Virgina Commonwealth won the CAA's automatic bid. The head-to-head comparison is a problem. The Monarchs destroyed Drexel 84-57 on January 13 then won on the Dragons' home floor 62-52 on February 1. Old Dominion doesn't have Drexel's out-of-conference resume, but it did knock off Georgetown and beat Toledo.

Drexel RPI: 39 SOS: 93
Old D RPI: 41 SOS: 83
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Jared Trexler can be reached at jtrexler@phanaticmag.com

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