Push for the Peach: West Region

By Drew Silverman
The Phanatic Magazine

WEST REGION

AT A GLANCE: The West Region is headlined by Kansas, which secured the top seed by virtue of its Big 12 championship victory against Texas on Sunday. UCLA, last year's runner-up, is seeded second in a region that has plenty of recognizable names but not necessarily the game to back it up.

There are a host of perennial powerhouses and recent contenders in this bracket, including #3 Pittsburgh, #6 Duke, #7 Indiana, #8 Kentucky, #9Villanova and #12 Illinois. But of these teams, only Pitt has any real shot to make some noise this month.

The West also has its share of intriguing mid-major squads. Fourth-seeded Southern Illinois might be the best mid-major in the nation and the team that usually holds that distinction, Gonzaga, is seeded 10th. Virginia Commonwealth and Holy Cross could be sleepers in the region.
REGION STRENGTH: I've heard people say that this is a difficult region, but in my opinion it's the easiest. There isn't a single team that is scary. There are good teams - Kansas, UCLA, Pitt - but no team that I really would not want to face if I was a tournament team. If this year's tournament took place in the 1990s, then there would be some great matchups with Duke, Kentucky and Kansas. But we're in 2007, people, and the fear factor is no longer there with these schools.

DEAR MR. COMMITTEE: Why did we get a No. 2 seed even though we went 10-1 against RPI Top 50 teams and 10-2 against teams in the NCAA Tournament? Sincerely,UCLA.

Why do we have to play one of the top mid-majors in Holy Cross, while Virginia Tech is seeded one spot below us and they get to face a mediocre team in Illinois? Sincerely, Southern Illinois

PREDICTED REGION WINNER: Southern Illinois. Why not the Salukis in a bracket full of perennial NCAA Tournament underachievers and flawed former powerhouses? This bracket is so wide open that you could argue every team inthe region got a good draw. The bottom line is that Kansas isn't as good as people think, UCLA isn't as good as last year, and SIU isn't a fluke.

TEAM-BY-TEAM GLANCE:

#1 Kansas Jayhawks (30-4, 14-2 Big 12)

What's to like: The Big 12 champions enter the NCAA Tournament on an 11-game winning streak. They overcame an early 32-10 deficit in Sunday's conference title game against Texas, eventually prevailing in overtime for their second win over the Longhorns this month.

What's not to like: The biggest issue surrounding the Jayhawks is their ability to overcome poor performances in the last two NCAA Tournaments. Kansas has lost as a 3 and 4 seed in the first round the last two years, and also has one of the youngest teams in the field as their top five scorers are either freshmen or sophomores.

Last until? The key with Kansas is the play of sophomore guard Brandon Rush,who was great in the Big 12 title game but tends to disappear at times. He averaged 13.8 points this season but when his outside shot isn't falling, the Jayhawks can look lost offensively. Kansas has the natural talent to cruise to the Sweet 16, but that's when the run will come to a sudden halt.

#2 UCLA Bruins (26-5, 15-3 Pac 10)

What's to like: UCLA has a superb trio of guards in Arron Afflalo, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison, who combine to average 42.8 points and 10.4 assists. As usual, coach Ben Howland's team is outstanding defensively and plays under control on offense.

What's not to like: The Bruins lost their last two games to Washington and California - two teams whose names do not appear on the NCAA Tournament bracket. They hoped to get a #1 seed but were edged when Kansas took the Big12 title. The latest issue for UCLA, which struggles offensively at times, is a sprained ankle suffered by Collison in practice this week.

Last until? The Bruins literally can beat any team in the country. They also can lose to at least 50 teams in the country. That being said, UCLA got a very good draw and anything short of the Elite 8 would be a disappointment for Howland's bunch.

#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (27-7, 12-4 Big East)

What's to like: Aaron Gray (14.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg) is literally the big man on campus at Pitt, where the 7-footer has improved his game every season. Levance Fields (9.3 ppg, 4.5 apg) is not intimidated by point guards with more size, speed or ability and Antonio Graves (9.4 ppg) is a senior with experience and a nice outside touch.

What's not to like: The Panthers don't have much depth up front if Gray gets into foul trouble. They also must overcome past disappointments in the NCAA Tournament with better teams than the one they have now.

Last until? Despite a balance of inside scoring and outside prowess and the underrated Jamie Dixon roaming the sidelines, Pitt always goes through stretches in the NCAA Tournament where scoring becomes a major factor. As soon as they meet a team that can match their defensive tenacity, the Panthers usually come up on the losing end.

#4 Southern Illinois Salukis (27-6, 15-3 MVC)

What's to like: The Salukis are the best mid-major in the tournament this season, boasting 13 wins in their last 14 games with the only loss being a hard-fought 67-61 defeat to Creighton in the Missouri Valley Conference championship game. The two best players on Southern Illinois are Jamaal Tatum and Randal Falker. Tatum (15.0 ppg) is the primary guard who makes it all happen, while Falker (12.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg) is a relentless inside force that causes opposing big men to see him in their sleep.

What's not to like: There is a history in the NCAA Tournament of mid-majors disappointing when they receive high seeds (See: Gonzaga, Butler, Nevada). Even SIU has been at its best with a double-digit seeding in March. And making things more dangerous for the Salukis is a first-round matchup with Holy Cross, another intriguing mid-major squad.

Last until? Southern Illinois was an impressive 15-3 in conference this season and also owns a victory against Virginia Tech, which could be the Salukis' opponent in the second round. If Southern Illinois survives until the second weekend, there could be potential matchups against Kansas, Kentucky,Pittsburgh, Duke or UCLA. But don't be fooled by these names, SIU has what it takes to beat any of them.

#5 Virginia Tech Hokies (21-11, 10-6 ACC)

What's to like: The Hokies quietly had an outstanding season in the ACC, where most of the attention focused on North Carolina's success and Duke's struggles. But it was the Hokies who handed the Tar Heels two of their six losses and also won at Duke when the Blue Devils were ranked fifth in the nation. One of the keys for March success is usually having a quality veteran backcourt, something Virginia Tech certainly can lay claim to. Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon combine for 29.3 points and 7.9 assists and the senior combo gets plenty of support from athletic swingman Deron Washington and sharpshooter A.D. Vassallo.

What's not to like: VA Tech has no NCAA Tournament experience and doesn't have a lot to fall back on if its guards are struggling from the field. The Hokies' forwards could be overmatched by Illinois? Shaun Pruitt and Warren Carter, who are far from elite big men themselves.

Last until? The Hokies had to be pleased to draw a team like Illinois in the first round as opposed to a dangerous mid-major like Winthrop or Davidson. But if they survive the Illini, that dangerous mid-major could be waiting for them in the presence of Southern Illinois, which has the experience and athleticism to match up with VA Tech.

#6 Duke Blue Devils (22-10, 8-8 ACC)

What's to like: Not a whole lot this year. Duke's defense has been very solid but offense and holding onto the ball have been constant issues. Jon Scheyer has played well as a freshman, but the rest of his class hasn't held up its end of the bargain. DeMarcus Nelson (14.3 ppg) has come on strong in his junior season.

What's not to like: The Blue Devils are coming off their worst season in a decade but still pulled a 6 seed through some combination of reputation and general Duke magic. Usually a force in the ACC, the Blue Devils didn't just lose to North Carolina twice, they also lost to Maryland twice and suffered defeats to Virginia Tech, Virginia, Florida State and Georgia Tech, not to mention a first-round loss to North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament. Duke is flawed in a number of areas this season, including the lack of a go-to scorer, an unusually high number of turnovers and the absence of any type of inside force. Josh McRoberts (12.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) hasn't developed at the rate most Duke fans would like, while Greg Paulus (11.4 ppg, 3.8 apg) has taken a step forward this season but still has a propensity for committing key turnovers late in games.

Last until? In most seasons, Nelson, McRoberts and Scheyer would be Duke's third, fourth and fifth options offensively. But this year they are 1-2-3 and that is a recipe for an early off-season in Durham. A trip to the Sweet 16 would be a big surprise.

#7 Indiana Hoosiers (20-10, 10-6 Big Ten)

What's to like: The key for the Hoosiers is the outside shooting of Roderick Wilmont, who made nine 3-pointers against Northwestern last month, and A.J. Ratliff, who has connected on nine of his last 13 attempts from behind-the-arc. Inside, Indiana relies on D.J. White (13.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg), but the 6-9 junior needs help from his outside shooters if he's going to have room to work in the paint.

What's not to like: The Hoosiers' resume is not overwhelming and their talent level isn't either. Their best wins are quality - against Wisconsin and Southern Illinois - but after that is a myriad of mediocre Big 10 victories like Michigan State and Illinois.

Last until? As long as their outside shots are falling, Indiana has a chance to beat any team in the West. But if the outside magic isn't there, the Hoosiers could be one and done.

#8 Kentucky Wildcats (21-11, 9-7 SEC)

What's to like: The key for the Wildcats is always the play of center Randolph Morris, who averages 15.8 points and 7.7 rebounds. The 6-11 junior displays flashes of brilliance but also has periods where he is a non-factor. They need Morris to be a force if Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford are going to be effective from the outside.

What's not to like: It was an up-and-down season for the Wildcats, who won 11 straight games from December-January but finished by losing six of their last nine. Their big wins came at Louisville and vs. Tennessee, but a closer look reveals that Tubby Smith's team was 0-7 against ranked opponents this season.

Last until? Kentucky opens with an all-Wildcat match-up against Villanova and the reward for the winner of that game? A meeting with top-seeded Kansas. It would be a major surprise if Kentucky is still standing come the Sweet 16.

#9 Villanova Wildcats (22-10, 9-7 Big East)

What's to like: While Curtis Sumpter (17.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg) has been Villanova's most consistent player, the key has been the emergence of talented freshman Scottie Reynolds (14.5 ppg), who poured in 40 points at UConn earlier this month and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.

What's not to like: Villanova certainly is helped by its outstanding free-throw shooting, but the Wildcats always have the ability to look poor offensively when the outside shots aren't falling and Reynolds starts turning the ball over.

Last until? Villanova's tournament hopes will depend on Reynolds' performance and the health of senior Mike Nardi, who is battling leg and ankle injuries. Chances are the Wildcats will be eliminated before he ever has a chance to get totally healthy.

#10 Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-10, 11-3 WCC)

What's to like: In the absence of suspended forward Josh Heytvelt, Derek Ravio has continued to carry the Zags. The senior point guard is averaging 18.1 points and 4.6 assists, while Jeremy Pargo chips in 12.2 points and 4.6 assists. But the X-factor for Gonzaga is Kansas transfer Micah Downs, who has elevated his play the last several weeks with increased playing time.

What's not to like: Without Heytvelt (15.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg), Gonzaga is rather thin up front in terms of guys who can score in the paint. Downs has played well, but he is a role player at this stage of his career. Overall, the Zags lack the overall talent they've had in recent seasons.

Last until? Gonzaga is a tough team to judge, because they could easily lose to Indiana in the first round. But they also could beat UCLA and go all the way to the Elite 8. History shows that the Zags fare better when less is expected, but this year might be the exception to the rule.

#11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (27-6, 16-2 CAA)

What's to like: One of the more dangerous mid-major teams in the draw, the Rams are the definition of balanced. They have three players who average at least 13 points, four who average between 4-5 rebounds and four who average at least one steal. VCU's best player is point guard Eric Maynor, who averages13.6 points, 6.3 assists and 4.4 rebounds. The sophomore literally stole the CAA Tournament title away from George Mason, making a pair of key steals inthe final minutes and scoring nine straight points down the stretch.

What's not to like: A matchup with Duke could be intimidating in the first round. But the Rams are well-coached by Anthony Grant and should not be intimidated by a Blue Devils team that clearly isn't as strong as usual.

Last until? The Rams enter March Madness on a five-game winning streak, including three straight victories in their conference tournament without allowing more than 60 points in any game. It seems every year a double-digit seed reaches the Sweet 16. This could be the year of the Ram.

#12 Illinois Fighting Illini (23-11, 9-7 Big Ten)

What's to like: Unlike star-studded teams Illinois has had in recent seasons, this year's squad does not include a player the caliber of Deron Williams, Dee Brown, Luther Head or James Augustine. What it does have is a capable shooter in Rich McBride (78 3-pointers) and a couple of respectable forwards in Shaun Pruitt and Warren Carter, who combine to average 25.3 points and 13.8 boards.

What's not to like: Victories over Penn State and Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament were just the push the Fighting Illini needed to get over the bubble hump. Their resume isn't all that impressive - highlighted by two wins over Indiana and victories against Michigan State and Bradley - but it was enough to sneak into the field.

Last until? Illinois' first-round opponent is Virginia Tech, which looks as "upsettable" as any 5 seed in the field. But the Illini simply don't have the look of a winner this year and they likely will prove to the committee, albeit too late, why they belonged in the NIT.

#13 Holy Cross Crusaders (25-8, 13-1 Patriot League)

What's to like: Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas - both seniors - combine to average 30.9 points and 10.6 rebounds. The duo combined for 51 points in the Patriot League championship game as Holy Cross defeated two-time defending conference champ Bucknell.

What's not to like: Holy Cross plays great defense but can struggle offensively at times. The team isn't as deep as the 2003 squad, which nearly knocked off Final Four-bound Marquette in the first round.

Last until? Earlier this season, Holy Cross hung around against Syracuse, Duke, Providence and Hofstra before losing each of those games by fewer than 10 points. Expect a similar result against Southern Illinois in the NCAA Tournament for the scrappy Crusaders.

#14 Wright State Raiders (23-9, 13-3 Horizon League)

What's to like: There's a lot to like about Dashaun Wood, who averaged 19.8 points and 3.9 assists while shooting nearly 38 percent from 3-point range. The 5-11 senior scored 27 points in the conference title game as the Raiders upset Butler to head to the Big Dance.

What's not to like: There isn't much scoring prowess after Wood as no other Raider averages double figures. Vaughn Duggins is the second-leading scorer on the roster at 8.9 points, but he shoots only 37 percent from the field.

Last until? Wright State really does not have anyone who can handle Pitt centerAaron Gray, meaning it probably will be a short trip to the NCAA Tournament for the Raiders. They have to hope that Dashaun gets hot.

#15 Weber State Wildcats (20-11, 11-5 Big Sky)

What's to like: The Wildcats have the conference Player of the Year in forward David Patten (14.4 ppg), who is the lone starter returning from the team that went 11-17 a year ago. Weber State started this season 4-4 but has come on strong, winning eight of its last 10.

What's not to like: One of the necessary elements in most major upsets is 3-point shooting. But other than Juan Pablo Silveira (55 3-pointers), no other Wildcat averages more than one per game.

Last until? UCLA certainly has the potential to look poor offensively on a given night. I think the right team could challenge the Bruins in a 2-15 matchup, but Weber State probably doesn't have the offensive firepower to do so.

#16 Niagara Purple Eagles (23-11, 13-5 MAAC)

What's to like: While Niagara has to face Kansas, at least the team has some momentum following Tuesday's 77-69 triumph against Florida A&M in the play-in game. Clif Brown made a career-high six 3-pointers en route to 32 points for the Purple Eagles, who won despite shooting just 39 percent, including 8-of-27 from the arc.

What's not to like: When you're a 16 seed, nothing's not to like. There is absolutely no pressure on the Purple Eagles, who can score as well as any double-digit seed in the field. If their 3-pointers are falling, perhaps they can give Kansas a run. If not, well at least they won the play-in game.

Last until? Expect Niagara to hang tough until the final minutes. This could go down as one of the closest 1-16 matchups of all time.