Initial Bracket Banter

The Phanatic Magazine's "Push to the Peach" unveils TODAY. Check in periodically to read columns, analysis, region-by-region breakdowns and staff predictions.

By Jared Trexler
The Phanatic Magazine

Everyone has an opinion.

Especially at first glance, when the mind races at Florida's road to a repeat and a possible Texas-North Carolina Sweet 16 match-up.

Hours upon hours of RPI review, Strength of Schedule analysis and conference tournament viewing formed my general beliefs before CBS reeled off the 65 invitees.

Some of my thoughts were reaffirmed, while others now look like a shot in the dark. However, before I begin stabbing Gary Walters and the NCAA Committee in the back, I must clearly state that the group has a difficult job.

After reading Philadelphia Daily News staff writer Dana Pennett O'Neil's behind-the-scenes profile of the selection process, along with several others from ESPN.com hoops writers Andy Katz and Pat Forde, I have come to appreciate the work this body does on a strict time limit with an ever-changing group of teams.

THE GOOD, BAD AND UGLY

Good: The right number of teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference (7). I watch a lot of ACC basketball, and despite the caveat that came with Toney Douglas' injury, Florida State did not deserve a tournament bid. The win at Florida was ages ago and the victory at Cameron Indoor lost clout as Duke showed itself as a hollow contender. Granted no losses came outside the RPI Top 50, but only five wins came from that category as well. Winning against bottom-feeders and losing to the predominant programs does not correlate to a tournament-worthy resume. Al Thornton will be a great NBA player, and it's sad to see his college career end in the NIT. But, no matter what Dick Vitale says, it was justly deserved. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, swept the Seminoles, finished .500 in the conference and won eight games against the RPI Top 50.

Bad: Illinois' inclusion in the field. I don't understand the committee's reasoning, especially considering some of the clubs left out (Missouri State, Drexel, Syracuse). The bubble pool was weak at the bottom, with each team having slightly more negatives than positives. No non-conference wins stand out -- it beat Missouri Valley fourth-place finisher Bradley and Missouri, but lost to Atlantic 10 regular season champion Xavier. The computer profile was good (RPI 29; SOS 23), but was masked by a host of victories over average opponents. I'm guessing the 2-1 record against Indiana helped, but an 8-8 conference mark was inflated by a generous flex schedule in the unbalanced Big Ten. The Illini only faced both Ohio State and Wisconsin once during the regular season.

Ugly: Arkansas?!!?! It seemed the Tournament Committee waited to see if an SEC West school showed any life during the conference tournament, feeling obligated to include the club that got hot for a few days. The Razorbacks beat Southern Illinois and West Virginia early in the campaign, but finished just 7-9 in the highly overrated SEC. The computer numbers were good (RPI 35; SOS 15), but some of the losses -- at South Carolina, LSU and Auburn -- really weren't. I understand three wins in three days got the Hogs in the field. Yet, I don't feel three days and one win over a tournament team should override just an average body of work. Drexel won at Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, St. Joe's, Temple....and I think Bruiser Flint would have scheduled a game on Mars if he knew the Space Jam squad would boost the RPI.

REGION STRENGTH

Again on first glance, this is how I see the regions stacking up.

East: (UNC, Georgetown, Washington St, Texas)

The East is loaded with a great mixture of young talent and methodical, physical play. The two possible regional semifinals would exhibit the two ways to skin a cat -- fast and furious or slow and steady. Kevin Durant against Roy's boys may possibly be the best looking Sweet 16 match-up. However, the Marquette-Michigan State winner will be no pushover for the Tar Heels, especially with streak-shooters Dominic James of the Eagles and Drew Neitzel of the Spartans on the opposite side.

West: (Kansas, UCLA, Pitt, Southern Illinois)

CBS is salivating over the possible Kansas-UCLA regional final, but both teams have plenty of pitfall possibilities along the way. Southern Illinois is a veteran club that plays the best on-ball defense in the country. Pitt is also tournament-tested, and while this isn't Coach K's best group of Dukies, the Devils can never be counted out come March. Gonzaga is a dangerous #10 seed, but the scariest club may be Seth Greenberg's Virginia Tech Hokies. The collection of guards -- Zabian Dowdell, Deron Washington and Jamon Gordon -- can take over games. Just ask North Carolina.

South: (Ohio State, Memphis, Texas A&M, Virginia)

The Cavaliers and Tigers are overseeded, but Texas A&M is by far the best #3 seed in the field. The Aggies are led by cut-throat shooting artist Acie Law and a great three-point shooter by the name of Josh Carter. Billy Gillespie's group also plays fantastic man-principled defense -- overplaying the passing lanes and sagging toward the middle at two passes away. Ohio State is supremely talented and Greg Oden was dominating during the Big 10 Tournament. Tennessee's Chris Lofton versus Virginia's Sean Singletary is a fascinating second-round possibility. Watch out for Nevada as a seventh seed and ninth-seeded Xavier. Nevada's Nick Fazekas gets all the headlines, but Marcelus Kemp may be the best player on the floor. Xavier plays in the CSTV-monopoly known as the Atlantic 10. Even most hardcore fans haven't likely seen the Musketeers play more than once this season, but remember the name Justin Doellman -- a 6-9 swingman with range from the perimeter (36 percent).

Midwest: (Florida, Wisconsin, Oregon, Maryland)

The NCAA Tournament Committee handed the Gators the keys to the castle. A repeat trip through a region is quite possible figuring the Badgers are suffering through scoring issues without Brian Butch, Oregon jumped five line spots with a conference tournament run and the Terrapins enter the Big Dance off an embarrassing loss to Miami-Florida. Alando Tucker is a marvelous player, but unless Kammron Taylor or Michael Flowers gets hot, the Badgers just don't put the ball in the basket with enough consistency. Aaron Brooks is a pleasure to watch, but the Ducks lost five of six just over one month ago. Maryland swept Duke and took out UNC late in the season only to look flat against the Hurricanes. Did it use too much juice to get back into the race?

POSSIBLE FIRST-ROUND UPSETS

Midwest: The Midwest is full of possible upsets, but if I was a betting man I'd take Georgia Tech to down seventh-seeded UNLV and Old Dominion to knock off reeling Butler.

East: George Washington, feeding off the momentum of an A-10 title, looks like a good bet to take down Vanderbilt. Texas Tech and Boston College is an intriguing match-up in the bracket's lower half.

West: Virginia Commonwealth's constant on-ball pressure will frustrate Greg Paulus, but I'm not sure it will be enough to down Duke. Wright State, which just beat Butler, believes it can knock off Pittsburgh, and that is half the battle.

South: Not much going on in the South except for possibly Albany against streak-shooting, guard-oriented Virginia. Many thought North Texas would get the play-in game, instead it is slated for a date with Memphis, the weakest No. 2 seed in the field.

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Jared Trexler can be reached at jtrexler@phanaticmag.com