Push for the Peach: South Region

The Phanatic Magazine's "Push for the Peach" continues with a breakdown of the South Region.

By Jared Trexler
The Phanatic Magazine

AT A GLANCE: A region broken into dynamically-different subregions, the South is predicated by prognosticators, this one included, to be the Ohio State-Texas A&M show. The Buckeye Invitational, also known as Ohio State's quad, should lead Greg Oden and company to San Antonio -- an odd geographical location especially if the Elite Eight opponent is A&M. Acie Law, Josh Carter and the rest of Billy Gillespie's bunch host Ivy League champion Penn before drawing the winner of Louisville-Stanford in round 2. The Cardinal are metaphorically limping into the Big Dance, while the Cardinals are literally limping with plenty of bumps, bruises and fatigue following a leave-it-on-the-floor mentality through the final few weeks of the Big East season.

A Tennessee-Virginia Round 2 showdown would feature a trio of talented, sharp-shooting guards in the Volunteers' Chris Lofton -- the best pure shooter in the 65-team field -- and the Cavaliers' duo of Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds. However, don't write the clubs into the second round with permanent marker. Both Long Beach State and Albany bring their share of problems. The Great Danes almost became the first No. 16 to down a top seed in last year's tournament, taking Connecticut to the brink of elimination late in the second half.

The bottom quad presents a golden opportunity for a mid-major to reach the Sweet 16. The Nevada-Creighton match-up features some high-major talent on teams from the WAC and Missouri Valley. Nate Funk is a dynamic perimeter shooter for the Blue Jays, especially since moving off the point earlier in the season. Nick Fazekas gets all of the headlines for Nevada, but a name to watch out for is Marcelus Kemp. The do-everything swingman has a solid perimeter stroke, and the game off the bounce to match.

REGION STRENGTH: On second glance, this appears to be the second easiest draw behind Florida's cakewalk to Atlanta. Ohio State shouldn't face a club capable of slowing Oden until the Elite Eight, and even then, the Aggies frontcourt is no equal match for the 7-foot freshman. Virginia or Tennessee will match Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler and Mike Conley on the perimeter, but the Buckeyes should control the backboards and roll to the Elite Eight. No low seed appears to be Sweet 16 capable, unless you count the winner of the 7-10 match-up behind Nevada and Creighton. Memphis is the weakest second seed on the board, mostly because the Tigers are a relative unknown after playing the last two-plus months exclusively in mediocre Conference USA.

DEAR MR. COMMITTEE: Stanford has great night clubs, killer beaches within manageable distance and groomed America's best athlete, Tiger Woods. However, this year's Cardinal, even with tower Robin Lopez (left), have no business on the South region line. Yes, they have tournament-worthy victories over Virginia and Texas Tech, but also lost to Santa Clara, bubble-bursting Air Force and Gonzaga. The RPI of 63 with a SOS of 37 aren't eye-popping numbers for an at-large selection. Also, we know you value how a team finishes its season. Well, Stanford finished with losses in four of five with the only victory over Arizona State. Everything else makes sense, except reasonable minds could argue the Aggies and Tigers should exchange places at the two and three spots. Virginia as a four is slightly high, but it did share the regular-season title in the RPI's top conference (ACC).

TEAM-BY-TEAM GLANCE

#1 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (30-3, 15-1 Big Ten)

What to Like: Size and speed, Ohio State has the entire package on the offensive end of the floor. Four players shot over 37 percent from long distance on the season, and one who didn't, Lewis, may be the club's best three-point shooter in the clutch. Oden is a beast inside and just keeps getting better. He averaged 17 points and 12.3 rebounds during the Big Ten Tournament, including 12 points on just nine shots and 10 boards against Wisconsin in the final. The unsung hero is Conley, who keeps all of the scorers happy, does a great job of running the break and recognizes the proper angles to get Oden the ball. If you notice, Oden always receives the ball in scoring position, a testament to his post-up ability but also Conley's court sense.

What not to Like: Youth. Yet, in reality, youth is everywhere. It shouldn't be a detriment, especially with veterans Butler, Ivan Harris and Lewis on the club. A team that is raw at the point and in the post usually doesn't cut down the nets -- and this group of Buckeyes likely won't, but not because of inexperience. At times, Ohio State's perimeter players, save Conley, forget Oden's game-changing ability. Nine shots is not enough in the NCAA Tournament for a player of Oden's caliber, especially against Law and third-seeded Texas A&M.

Last until...The long arm of the Law takes it out in the regional final. Carter, one of the best long-distance shooters in the country, could be the difference, especially if Thad Matta falls in love with stopping Law. The Aggies are tournament-tested from top to bottom and will bounce the Buckeyes in a down-to-the-wire, entertaining Elite Eight bout.

#2 MEMPHIS TIGERS (30-3, 16-0 C-USA)

What to Like: Athleticism and scoring punch. Rodney Carney is long gone, but many college basketball fans forget Jeremy Hunt and Chris Douglas-Roberts. Memphis plays pressure on-ball defense and is effective at forcing the tempo.

What not to Like: The biggest question mark in the entire tournament, one has to wonder if the Tigers are doubting themselves deep down. They haven't left Conference USA except for a victory over a depleted Gonzaga squad late in the season. Victories over South Florida and TCU only go so far, and the Tigers will have to prove they can outwit a team that matches their athleticism. High-flying clubs Georgia Tech, Tennessee and Arizona all handed Memphis losses this season. At times in the NCAA Tournament, you have to run an orchestrated set as the shot clock winds down and score. Time will tell if the Tigers can accomplish that feat.

Last until...they meet one of two mid-major darlings in the second round. Both Nevada and Creighton present different match-up problems for the Tigers, but either will send the Tigers packing. No elite competition for over two months will bite Memphis in the end against the experienced guards of the Blue Jays in a second-round upset.

#3 TEXAS A&M AGGIES (25-6, 13-3 BIG 12)

What to Like: Experience. Two juniors and the senior Law make up three of the club's top four scorers. Law is a cut-throat performer, just ask Texas' Kevin Durant, who watched the southpaw float an off-balance three over his outstretched arms to force overtime in the state rivalry during late February. Law (below), along with Oden, are the best players in the bracket, but unlike the seven-footer, Acie can dictate tempo and create his own shots. Carter is a perfect complement for the penetrate-and-kick game. The most important piece may be Antanas Kavaliauskas, a big man who likes to float out to the the mid-range game -- shooting 54 percent on the season from the floor.
What not to Like: If anything, the lack of a physically-imposing inside presence. Joseph Jones is 6-9 and Kavaliauskas is 6-10, but can either push Oden or even Louisville's David Padgett around in a possible second-round contest?

Last until...a national semifinal defeat in Atlanta. The Aggies will rely heavily on Law, along with the perimeter shooting of Carter, to take down Penn and Louisville before pushing past Creighton in the Sweet 16. In the Elite Eight, Oden won't receive enough touches, and A&M will advance out of the region.

#4 VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (20-10, 11-5 ACC)

What to Like: Singletary and Reynolds are one of the best backcourt duos in the country. Reynolds is a natural off guard, 17.8 points and shooting 42 percent from the floor on the season. Singletary is a great mix guard -- solid with the ball and comfortable on the wing. The first team All-ACC selection compiled 18.9 points and 4.6 assists on the campaign.

What not to Like: Not a lot along the frontline. Senior Jason Cain scraps and claws, hustling to make up for his lack of size on the interior. After Cain, the Cavs rely on 6-7 forward Adrian Joseph in the paint. The deficiencies may not hurt until the Sweet 16 or Lofton's three-point barrage -- whichever comes first.

Last until...a tight second-round loss to Tennessee. Both the Vols and Cavs may be overseeded. A 10-loss big-conference club probably shouldn't be on the four line, but Virginia has a manageable draw and a relatively good chance to reach San Antonio. The second-round game could go either way, but I lean toward the tournament-tested Lofton and do-everything Dane Bradshaw in the clutch.

#5 TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (22-10, 10-6 SEC)

What to Like: Lofton's stroke and Bradshaw's heart. Playing with multiple injuries all season, Bradshaw is head coach Bruce Pearl's type of player -- hard-nosed and team-first. Lofton, if it can't be stated enough, is the best pure shooter in the tournament, drilling 42 percent of his threes on the campaign. When he was out with injury, the Volunteers seemed lost offensively.

What not to Like: Much like the Cavaliers, the Volunteers' lack of a post presence will be killer when one of the clubs venture to San Antonio for a Sweet 16 bout with Ohio State. Freshman Wayne Chism, the team's fourth leading scorer, is the top big guy standing just 6-9.

Last until...Oden dominates in the Sweet 16. It would take a J.J. Redick-like night from Lofton to keep the Vols close. I just don't see it, especially with Ohio State's weapons on the perimeter.

#6 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (23-9, 12-4 BIG EAST)

What to Like: The appearance of freshman big man Derrick Caracter really provided Padgett with some relief and opened driving lanes for Edgar Sosa, Terrence Williams and Juan Palacios. The Cardinals enter the tourney winners in seven of their last eight -- going in a far different direction than their first-round opponent.

What not to Like: Padgett is labeled as "soft," and rightly so for a big man who averages just 5.7 rebounds a game. Caracter is still mentally and emotionally immature, so head coach Rick Pinto's inside game is lacking toughness. Texas A&M is the epitome of tough.

Last until...Law and the Aggies take them out in the second round. The Cardinals will stay in the game for the duration, but Law won't end his career before a trip to San Antonio.

#7 NEVADA WOLF PACK (28-4, 14-2 WAC)

What to Like: Two NBA prospects in Fazekas, who pulled out of the draft before hiring an agent after last season, and Kemp. The Wolf Pack have bad memories from a first-round exit last season.

What not to Like: Little competition throughout the season. Nevada didn't even play a team of Creighton's caliber until UNLV on December 9, a game it lost. The loss in the WAC semis is a bad omen, especially with how well the Blue Jays have been playing. The club, for all its offensive talent, doesn't play great fundamental halfcourt defense.

Last until...Nate Funk steps on the floor. The defensive lapses talked about above will prove costly against a great long-distance shooting club. Fazekas' college career ends with two consecutive first-round losses.

# 8 BYU COUGARS (25-8, 13-3 Mountain West)

What to Like: The apple didn’t fall far from the tee. Former collegiate and NBA sharpshooter Danny Ainge taught his son Austin well, as the senior guard has turned into a dangerous outside weapon for the Cougars. The 6-2 guard shot a staggering 49 percent from beyond the arc (54-of-110) on the season. Keena Young, however, is BYU’s heart and soul, averaging 17.2 points on the season. He is coming off a 34-point performance in the Mountain West championship game win over UNLV.

What not to Like: Falling flat against big competition. The Cougars are without a true signature win this season, losing the season opener to UCLA then later in non-conference play to Michigan State. Two wins over Air Force came after the New Year, when the Falcons slowly began falling off the face of the NCAA Tournament radar.

Last until…A second-round date with the Buckeyes. Oden is too strong on the interior, and Ohio State is too deep on the perimeter for the Mountain West regular-season champs.

# 9 XAVIER MUSKETEERS (24-8, 13-3 Atlantic-10)

What to Like: Non-conference W’s over Villanova, Kansas State and Illinois demonstrate the Musketeers’ success in games against similarly skilled competition. Senior Justin Doellman is a force on the block and floating to the perimeter, shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc. Stanley Burrell is a warrior at the guard position, logging over 1000 minutes in the regular season while averaging 13.1 points per contest.

What Not to Like: Months of poor competition. All of the marquee wins listed above happened on or before January 3, meaning the last two months have been played against the likes of Dayton and Richmond. The Musketeers have played and beaten just one tournament team since December 29, downing George Washington, 87-58, on February 10.

Last until…the buzzer sounds in the first round. Both BYU and Xavier haven’t played high-quality schedules down the stretch, but The Phanatic Magazine says Ainge will drain a key three down the stretch and the Cougars will sneak one out.

# 10 CREIGHTON BLUE JAYS (22-10, 13-5 MVC)

What to Like: Peaking at the right time. The Blue Jays have won 10 of 13, including a victory over Southern Illinois in the conference title game. Freshman Isacc Miles has helped lower the ball-handling pressure on Funk, allowing the guard to slide over to his more comfortable wing spot. Leading the club in scoring, Funk is one of three battle-tested seniors for head coach Dana Altman, along with Anthony Tolliver and Nick Porter. All three have vast tournament experience, as does Altman. The Blue Jays have made the Big Dance in seven of the last nine seasons.

What not to Like: The loss to Drexel in BracketBusters showed this team just can’t get completely over the proverbial hump. Something is missing, and I’m not sure what. I stand by the belief that the Creighton-Nevada winner will knock out Memphis, but I’m less certain on the winner of the first-round game. At times the Blue Jays are susceptible on the backboards, not a good sign with Fazekas looming.

Last until…a trip to San Antonio for the Sweet 16. I can’t get past Creighton’s veteran leadership, which should be enough to squeak past Nevada then upend Memphis to reach the regional semifinals, where equally experienced Texas A&M waits.

# 11 STANFORD CARDINAL (18-12, 10-8 PAC-10)

What to Like: Trees in the paint. The Lopez Twins (Brook and Robin) are both seven-footers with plenty of beef. Lawrence Hill (tailbone) is back from injury and Anthony Goods is a 37 percent three-point shooter. Defenses must realize, I’m talking to you Rick Pinto, that the double-downs on either Lopez can’t come from Goods’ man or the rest is three-point history.

What not to Like: Talked about greatly under “Dear Mr. Committee,” the Cardinal have one of the weakest at-large profiles in the field. Wins over Virginia, Texas Tech, Washington State and UCLA prove they belong, but they enter the tournament on a bad run, losers in four of five (twice to USC).

Last until…a narrow loss in the first round at the hands of Louisville. The Cardinal trees may give Padgett problems on the interior, but Palacios, Sosa and Williams are too good in space for the more methodical Cardinal guards.

#12 LONG BEACH STATE 49ERS (24-7, 12-2 Big West)

What to Like: Not much really, unless you count a ringing endorsement from my girlfriend. She likes Long Beach State's experience, and wouldn’t you know it, the 49ers’ top six scorers are seniors! That is research my friends.

What not to Like: Stability at the top is a question with the rumors that Larry Reynolds may be out as head coach once the tournament run ends. That could also serve as motivation, but it’s a tough line to walk, especially for a low mid-major. The question I have for a team facing Chris Lofton is, “Can you get out and guard people?” 93, 77, 76, 80, 75, 63, 83 points surrendered in their last seven games. The answer is not well enough.

Last until…Lofton and Bradshaw start burying threes from all corners of the court.

#13 ALBANY GREAT DANES (23-9, 13-3 America East)

What to Like: They believe. The Great Danes took ultra-talented Connecticut to the brink of elimination during last year’s first round. This Virginia team is not as talented, and Albany is riding a high after downing regular season dominator Vermont in the conference title game.

What not to Like: Pounding by 31 at Connecticut and by 18 against Virginia Commonwealth are signs they can’t handle the big-game pressure. I don’t think the Great Danes have a defensive stopper for Reynolds or Singletary.

Last until…”Starting for the Cavaliers, Sean Singletary.”

# 14 PENN QUAKERS (22-8, 13-1 Ivy League)

What to Like: Intelligent, team-oriented group that plays with more pace than versions of the past. Lost by just 10 points to Villanova and beat Temple this season. Mark Zoller (18.2 points, 7.5 rebounds per game) is a heady player.

What not to Like: Lack of size – no player over 6-9 -- and possibly rusty after not playing since March 6. The Ivy League really needs a post-season tournament.

Last until…Acie Law decides it’s time to get moving.

#15 NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN (23-10, 10-8 Sun Belt)

What to Like: Confidence is a fickle beast. The Mean Green have won seven of eight, avenging their only loss during that time in the conference tournament title game against Arkansas State.

What not to Like: A 10-8 record in such a pedestrian league. North Texas lost to Charlotte by 18 and Nebraska by 19. The RPI suggested the Opening Round Game, not a No. 15 in the South.
Last until…The Tigers turn on the engines. I thought Memphis could go down with the right match-up (possibly Belmont) but instead it drew the worst 15th-seed in the draw.

#16 CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (22-11, 16-2 Northeast)

What to Like: Winners in 17 of their last 18 games. Javier Mojica is a 41 percent long-range shooter.

What not to Like: A 20-point loss to Michigan and 27-point defeat to Davidson are not good omens for the Blue Devils.

Last until…Oden exerts his force in the middle. This group of Blue Devils just doesn’t have the horses to stay with the galloping Buckeyes.

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You can reach Jared Trexler at jtrexler@phanaticmag.com