35 Reasons to Believe

The Phanatic Magazine kicked off its 35 straight days of Phillies on February 25, one article per day detailing each member battling for position as the season begins. Also, look for Michael Rushton's season outlook, which will cap the offseason look at the Phillies on Opening Day -- April 2nd against Atlanta.

DAY 13: Matt Smith

By Tim McManus
The Phanatic Magazine

In some ways, the fate of the Phillies' season is in Matt Smith's hands.

Few will argue against the penciled-in production of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, or will disagree that the Phils boast one of the deepest starting rotations in the league.

How one views the stability of the bullpen, though, separates those who see this team as a division winner from those who think they'll be on the outside looking in for a 14th straight season.

No question, relief pitching is the great variable in this equation, and players like Smith make that variable all the more difficult to pin down.

There is hope: Smith was a main piece in the deal that sent Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to the Yankees, and the rookie showcased his worth by starting his Major League career with an 18 2/3-inning scoreless streak that wasn't halted until Sept. 25.

In 26 combined appearances between New York and Philadelphia, the 6-5 lefty posted an 0-1 record with a minuscule .87 earned run average.

And there is doubt: Smith is 27-years old, bringing into question why his ascension to the big-leagues took so long, and if he's due to revert back to the level that kept him in the minors.

And some wonder about his big-game ability, pointing to his seventh-inning letdown against the Astros in late September, when the Phils were battling for a wild card spot that ultimately eluded them.

As a whole, Smith's performance last year was a nice surprise. This year, his success is borderline mandatory.

A look at the bullpen as currently constructed and Smith is the primary left-handed arm, meaning that he is likely to end up in some very big spots, particularly early as management figures out what they have in Fabio Castro.

Yes, starters like Freddy Garcia and bats like Howard's can go a long way to putting the team in a position to win. But when the bases are loaded with one out in the eighth and Carlos Delgado is standing at the plate, they're helpless.

Instead it's pitchers like Smith that have control over the situation. How they fare will likely be the difference between postseason and offseason.

Tomorrow: Antonio Alfonseca