Sunday, March 30, 2008
Baseball season already? Time to get our Phil(s)
The Phanatic Magazine
Where did the time go?
Just six months ago, fresh off a disappointing cameo in the postseason, Philadelphia fans quickly looked up and shivered a bit at the local sporting prospects they faced between then and the time that pitchers and catchers reported.
It didn’t look pretty.
On one hand, they had a hockey team coming off the worst season in its franchise history.
On the other hand, they had a maddening football team that, only a month into the season, already showed signs of being just good enough to be competitive and just mediocre enough to remain home in January.
On the third hand (yeah, I know - just work with me here), they had a basketball team that… wait, they still had a basketball team?
Anyhow, as we know, the winter wasn’t so cruel to us, after all. The latter two teams have made surprise showings to give us hope for the future and the former team… well, they are the Gold Standard, right?
But what was once a forgone conclusion that a large bulk of the sports conversation in the Delaware Valley between October and April would pertain to the Phils, the defending division champs have largely flown under the radar. Yes, the one team that has actually proven itself in the recent past was basically forgotten about!
Last year, The Phanatic provided you “35 Reasons to Believe,” and included names like Randall Simon(!) as one of them. Yes, the Tonya Harding/Jeff Gillooly of wiener races made the cut.
This year? Nada. A vast emptiness of baseball chatter.
Does that mean that we simply expect great things this year, and it’s not necessary for a build-up?
Or, maybe, is there an uncomfortable feeling inside of us that we care not to talk about, like a kind of jinx which may transform our fears into reality?
The perennial skeptic that I am, I responded last year’s reasons to believe with reasons to “be-leery.” Regardless of how many of my reasons came to fruition (and many, in fact, did), the Phillies somehow still made it to October, so yes, I know where I could stick those reasons of mine.
This year, I’ll just call them simply “concerns.” Not predictions. Not damnations. Just “concerns.”
For example:
- Our No. 1 starter has never pitched a full year in health. Our No. 2 was a reliever last season and was not as good a starter as many of us recall. Our No. 3 is old enough to have fathered our No. 1 and 2 starters. Our No. 4 hasn’t pitched a full season yet and every time I think of our No. 5, I vomit a little bit in my mouth.
- Uncle Charlie STILL fills out the cards! Does that not scare you a little bit?
- The Mets got Santana this offseason. The Braves quietly got a lot better, as well. Did the Phillies improve as much as they did?
Again, just “concerns.” But sometimes concerns can become truths – a la the 2007 Phillies – and it still doesn’t matter. Perhaps that’s what we’ll see this year in order to repeat the excitement once more.
And now for my picks. I was hoping to put them off until Kenny Lofton got signed (since whatever team he’s been on over the past seven seasons – excluding his stint with the Phils – has made the playoffs), but, to no avail, as he remains unsigned.
NL Division Winners: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Braves
AL Division Winners: Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners
NL Wild Card: Yankees
World Series: Dodgers over Tigers (The Tigers have a sick batting lineup. The Dodgers are simply solid across the board. In the end, a shutdown bullpen, a resurgence by Andruw Jones and the steady leadership of Joe Torre prevails.)
I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong. Especially from the National League side. But, you know, I have these concerns…
Monday, April 02, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
The Phanatic Magazine
Season Preview
It’s the final countdown.
Not the awesome Europe song that serves as GOB’s unofficial theme song on “Arrested Development,” but the countdown to Opening Day that at the time of publication, was less than two hours away.
Fans haven’t been this excited for the start of the Phillies season in a long time. Long gone is the seemingly incompetent Ed Wade and new general manager Pat Gillick has already put his stamp on this club.
Gone are Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Mike Lieberthal and Randy Wolf. In are Freddy Garcia, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas and Adam Eaton. These additions, along with Philadelphia’s homegrown talent and other transactions, have made the Phils a popular pick to grab a playoff spot if not win the NL East outright.
You’ve read closely as The Phanatic Magazine showed you each player expected to make an impact -- and some who didn't pan out. Now, let’s see how the club stacks up as a whole.
Infield: Few teams in the National League possess an infield as good as the Philadelphia Phillies. Led by the reigning NL MVP, Ryan Howard, the Phils’ infield has a lot of power and can hit for average as well. Howard, of course, is the big deep threat. Last year’s home run derby champ clubbed a franchise record 58 home runs -- breaking Mike Schmidt’s 1980 club record -- and his 149 RBI were the highest by a Fightin’ since Chuck Klein’s 170 in 1930, the current franchise record. Both Howard’s home run and RBI total led the majors.
Also grabbing some of the spotlight is second baseman Chase Utley. Utley brings a lot of power to the second base position and his .309 average last season makes him the perfect table setter for Howard. Utley will also swipe his fair share of bases, making him arguably the best second baseman in the entire league.
Together, Howard and Utley are the perfect blend of power and contact (Howard hit .313 last season) and make up the best right side of the infield in the majors. Throw in shortstop Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies infield boosts three potential All-Stars.
Rollins made waves when he proclaimed the Phillies the team to beat this year in the division, and he will once again try to take that one last step to becoming a complete leadoff hitter.
Already spectacular with the glove and possessing power from the leadoff spot, Rollins is just a .266 career hitter in April, but hits at a .289 clip in September. A fast start and less strikeouts will vault Rollins to the top of the list in regards to leadoff hitters.
Wes Helms presents the weakest link in the Phils’ infield, especially defensively, but has never been a full-time starter and is a better hitting option than Abraham Nunez.
Overall Rating: A -
Outfield: The Phillies outfield is one of potential, and it all starts in left field. The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde known as Pat Burrell must pick an identity this year. Burrell, the most talked about topic this season after Howard’s bat and Utley’s contract, has power but is perhaps lacking the mental strength. His strikeout numbers are too high for his production, and his inability to drive in runners in scoring position last season was well documented.
Burrell must do a better job this year if he is to protect Howard in the lineup.
Aaron Rowand brings his heart and dedication back to the field. Rowand’s hustle twice led to drawbacks last season, as two separate collisions (one with a wall and one with Utley) sidelined him last year. Rowand’s name has come up a lot more than it should in trade discussions, but the intangibles he brings to the table make up for the few deficiencies in his game. Expect more than last year’s .262 average.
Shane Victorino begins the season as the starter in right field. While not possessing the power that a right fielder should, he is a spark plug none the less and should become more dangerous on the base paths under the guidance of first base coach Davey Lopes.
Overall, each position in Philadelphia’s outfield brings a different element to the table in the form of Burrell’s power, Rowand’s leadership and contact, and Victorino’s speed and scrappiness.
Overall Rating: B
Catcher and Bench: Barajas and Carlos Ruiz will split time at the catching position. The Phillies would like nothing more than for Ruiz to develop at the plate and continue his solid defensive play as well. However, in case he fails to come along at a good pace, the Phillies brought in a veteran in Barajas as a safety net. Barajas may fair well at Citizens Bank Park as he hit 11 homers in just 97 games last year.
The Phillies bench is interesting to say the least, but not deep. Nunez will see the most time in the field of the group, mostly as a defensive replacement for Helms, but he should get some starts every now and then as well.
It was nice to see outfielder Jayson Werth make the roster if only for the fact that he is trying to resurrect a career derailed by injury. He played in 101 games with the Dodgers in 2005, but missed all of last season due to a wrist injury.
The final two names on the bench spark the most interest.
Greg Dobbs, a former Mariner, came out of nowhere to win an Opening Day spot, and wasn't even one of the 35 players profiled by The Phanatic Magazine. This year’s Chris Coste (Coste will start the year on the DL and may be given a spot when he returns) batted .358 in spring and belted five homers with a team-leading 20 RBI.
Michael Bourn rounds out the bench and is my pick as the player who could have the biggest impact. However, that impact could come in the front office. If Bourn puts together a good season and meets the expectations the team has for him to eventually take over in center field, the club could move Rowand this year before the deadline. Rowand is a free agent at the end of the season.
Overall Rating: C
Starting Pitching: The Phils’ rotation is as deep as it has ever been. The additions of Garcia and Eaton to complement ace Brett Myers, young lefty Cole Hamels, and rock-solid veteran Jamie Moyer gives the club a solid starting five.
Myers went through a tough stretch last season that involved a certain incident in Boston, but has shown nothing but growth and maturity so far this season. With the addition of Garcia (17-9 last season with the White Sox) the Phillies have a one-two punch that could win 40 games.
Hamels is the most unproven of the bunch, but showed what he can do last season with a 9-8 mark and 145 strikeouts in 132 1/3 innings. His devastating off-speed stuff will baffle hitters all season. Moyer will provide the kind of guidance Myers and Hamels will need once the team reaches the postseason. The 44-year-old will serve as a positive influence on the rest of the Phils staff, and can still win 12-14 games.
Eaton should shore up the rotation as long as he stays healthy. Interestingly enough, it is Garcia and the man Eaton bumped out of the rotation, Jon Lieber, who begin the season on the DL, not Eaton. However, if the righty doesn’t stay healthy, his signing could be a black mark on Gillick’s resume.
Overall Rating: A
Bullpen: Undoubtedly will be the club’s Achilles Heel all season. Tom Gordon was effective last year (34 saves), but also went through a dead-arm phase, and at 39 there is no reason to expect it not to happen again this year. Also, if something does happen to Gordon, the Phillies don’t have a sure choice to replace him.
That role would most likely go to Ryan Madson, who had a good spring and will serve as the eighth inning setup guy. Madson and Geoff Geary both had solid springs, especially Madson with his 1.69 earned run average, and may surprise people with how well they shorten games out of the bullpen.
However, after those three, the pen gets shakey. Matt Smith is the lone lefty and was rocked to the tune of a 7.50 ERA this spring, and it is hard to tell how much soon-to-be 35-year-old Antonio Alfonseca has left in the tank.
Righties Clay Condrey and Zack Segovia will complete the bullpen after winning jobs out of spring, though one should return to Triple-A when Lieber comes off the DL. However, it is very hard to see Lieber sticking around in the bullpen for too long. He is still likely to get traded any day now unless the Phillies are concerned about Garcia or Eaton getting hurt early.
Overall Rating: D
Overview: On paper, the Phillies should be able to compete with the Mets, and get the edge because of their pitching staff. However, titles are not won on paper.
Not everything needs to go right for Philadelphia, but a nasty combination of the following could quickly derail them.
A given for any team is that their pitching staff must stay healthy. While the club is six deep, it is very thin after that and one or two injuries can not be filled from within the organization. Also, Burrell must hit and Victorino needs to put it together over a full season. Don’t worry about the infield (Howard, Utley, Rollins), they will be fine.
The team must also avoid a slow start. A poor April and May most certainly means manager Charlie Manuel is out the door, and Lieber and Rowand will be dealt sooner than later. The team would also continue to try and move Burrell as well.
However, a Philadelphia club making its first World Series appearance since 1993 is far more likely.
You just have to believe.
Below is staff predictions for the upcoming season. The first three are division champs, followed by wild card winners.
NL
Michael Rushton: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Braves
Tim McManus: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets
Eric Redner: Phillies, Cubs, Giants, Mets
Jared Trexler: Mets, Brewers, Padres, Phillies
Steve Lienert: Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Mets
John Gottlieb: Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies
John McMullen: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets
AL
Rushton: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox
McManus: Yankees, Tigers, Athletics, Red Sox
Redner: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Yankees
Trexler: Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Tigers
Lienert: Red Sox, Twins, Athletics, Yankees
Gottlieb: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox
McMullen: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Tigers
World Series:
Rushton: Angels over Cubs
McManus: Tigers over Dodgers
Redner: Red Sox over Phillies
Trexler: Angels over Padres
Lienert: Mets over Red Sox
Gottlieb: Angels over Dodgers
McMullen: Dodgers over Yankees
Optimism only goes so far as none of The Phanatic Magazine staffers picked the Phillies to reach the World Series sans Redner, who has the club losing to the Red Sox.
With regards to the Phils, of the six staffers who posted picks as of 11:30 a.m. (et), Redner, Gottlieb and Lienert predict Utley to be the team's MVP, while Trexler and Rushton like Myers. McManus is the only one with sense, and went with Howard.
On the negative side, both Rushton and McManus feel Eaton will be Philadelphia's biggest disappointment, while Redner (Helms), Trexler (Gordon), Gottlieb (Burrell) and Lienert (Burrell) all see different.
Interestinly enough, all six writers feel Manuel will make it through the entire season as the manager, though Lienert predicts his exit at season's end.
Sunday, April 01, 2007
One day away...
Well, we're out of players, so the regular season must be upon us.
If you missed any of the stories, click on the "Phillies Season Preview" link below to scroll through them. And check back to read Michael Rushton's in-depth preview, that will get you as ready as can be for Opening Day.
In the meantime, read the iconic Bill Lyon's piece on the Phillies' art of seduction.
Saturday, March 31, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
By Tim McManus
The Phanatic Magazine
Day 35 - Ryan Howard
Where is the point when an athlete becomes transcendent?
What pushes someone into the elite category, where they are judged on a scale that very few get to step foot on?
For most it's difficult to pin down. For Ryan Howard, that moment occurred on June 20th of last year.
First inning, two out, two on, Mike Mussina on the mound for the Yanks. Howard turns on a pitch, and launches it into the third level of the right-field stands at Citizen's Bank Park. Brett Myers presses against the dugout fence, follows the shot in bewilderment, and sums up everyone's experience with his eyes as he turns toward the camera-- I've never seen anything like that before in my life!
Howard finishes with two home runs and seven RBI to up his numbers to 25 homers and 66 RBI just 71 games in. It was time to start paying close attention.
"I think back to that Yankee game and the ball I hit into the third deck and I went [in the stands] and got to see it and didn't think it was humanly possible to do that. The first thing that came to my mind was, 'Did this really just happen?'"
Phillies fans and national pundits alike have the same reaction when looking at Howard's MVP season as a whole. Most knew he had the chance to be special, but to have a season that statistically trumps all but one of Barry Bonds' campaigns? Shocking, even more so when you realize Charlie Manuel didn't put him into the four-hole permanently until July.
And honestly, it still hasn't sunk in. Remaining in disbelief, many are looking at Howard's sub-par spring and trying to equate it into an inevitable fall. He must be a flash -- nothing that bright can burn for long.
Put pessimism or measured caution aside, though, and history suggests that Howard has not yet reached his peak years. He has only one full season under his belt, has played in just 251 major league games and is but 27-years-old.
Does that mean that he is going to match or exceed the 58 home runs and 149 RBI that he put up in 2006 each year? Likely not, since he will be dealt with very gingerly by opposing managers and pitchers from now on.
That became pretty clear on August 11 against Cincinnati, when Howard was walked three times in extra innings. The final free pass came in the bottom of the 14th to load the bases with no outs, putting the winning run just 90 feet away.
Reds manager Jerry Narron explained, "When he comes to the plate, he's already in scoring position."
A dip in numbers doesn't mean that Howard's impact will be any less. To reference Bonds again, the slugger's home run numbers dropped after his record-setting 2001 season from 73 to 46, and his RBIs went from 137 to 110 the following year. His batting average, though, jumped from .328 to .370 and his on-base percentage skyrocketed to .582 as teams learned to further fear and respect him.
He claimed his second of four straight MVPs that year, and more importantly, guided his team to the World Series in '02, where the Giants fell a game short of claiming a championship.
When teams choose not to challenge you regularly, there are a few natural benefits as long as you stay disciplined: You will draw more walks, your average will increase, and your eye will become more keen. The strike zone becomes less important than a personal zone that you create -- if a ball comes into your wheelhouse, you crack it; if not, you let it be.
And, of course, your teammates will see better pitches, thereby shifting the entire dynamic and potency of your lineup.
In other words, Howard will affect the game even when he's caged in the dugout, giving the title of reigning MVP further meaning.
Like Howard's swing, his emergence has come so swift and violently, that it's hard to comprehend. The man himself has a difficult time grasping that he has reached such a high level so quickly.
But as sure as there is an "H" inscribed on the third-deck seat where that improbable June 20 home run landed, Howard's abilities are very real.
And for those who are still concerned, fear not -- he'll provide some reassurance in just a few short days.
Tim can be reached at tmcmanus@phanaticmag.com
Friday, March 30, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
By Jared Trexler
The Phanatic Magazine
Day 34 - Chase Utley
Chase Utley is likely good enough -- as in grand slam in his first big league start, a .290 career average and a 35-game hitting streak during 2006 -- to warrant a personal screenin

The star second baseman may have found his purpose in every word and stunning shot of former Vice President Al Gore's Academy Award winning film.
So much so, that he joined the virtual protest against global warming on http://www.stopglobalwarming.com/. Of course, he also managed to find time for a wedding and a new contract in the offseason -- tying the two together in holy matrimony.
One day after tying the knot with UCLA alum Jennifer Cooper (far right), Utley joined in unison with the Phillies on a new seven-year, $85 million contract.
Regretfully, The Phanatic Magazine couldn't obtain any video from that kickin' honeymoon because I don't think couples normally register for $85 million big ones.
Now, Utley and the Phillies are a partnership for the rest of his baseball life -- leading him well past his prime to the veteran age of 35.
"My plan is to stay a Phillie for life," said Utley, a rare phrase uttered among stars of this city's major sports franchises. "There aren't too many young players who get this kind of security so early in their careers."
The security came from a first two full years to remember -- filled with home runs, head-first slides and an attitude remarkably similar to this city's over-arching dynamic.
"He's a player other organizations dream about having," said assistant general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. The dream became a reality when the Phillies bent from one of general manager Pat Gillick's hard-line stances -- no-trade clauses. The club handed Utley a limited no-trade clause, weighing his talent far more than management principle.
The Southern Californian's big break occurred in June 2005 when the club sent Placido Polanco to Detroit for bullpen arm Ugueth Urbina and infielder Ramon Martinez.
Urbina is now in solitary confinement for 14 years in his native Venezuela, while Martinez plays for the Dodgers. But those three players in their only little way gave Utley the chance to shine.
And he did so brightly, no longer part of a platoon with Polanco while getting regular at-bats in the heart of the Phillies order. He finished the season with 28 home runs, 105 runs batted in, 16 stolen bases and a .291 batting average.
He had truly arrived.
Then he went out and backed it up with an even better statistical season, clubbing 32 home runs with 40 doubles, 102 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .309 average, all leading to an All-Star Game berth and a seventh place finish in the National League MVP voting.
After a year-plus of diamond excellence, the Phillies rewarded Utley in another way -- making him (along with Ryan Howard) the face of the franchise. Bobby Abreu was shipped to the New York Yankees in a deadline deal and Pat Burrell had been dragged through the mud by fans and media alike.
This was now partly Utley's team -- and he planned on leading just the way he played, pushing players toward their best by example. Simply put, Utley would quietly (and with every loud crack of the bat) lead by his play, not by his mouth.
"As far as leadership goes, I’m going to continue to play the way I have," he said. "I think a good leader leads by example."
And as Spring Training quickly races upon Opening Day, Utley has continued his rise to stardom. Granted Grapefruit League stats are meaningless when filling out Cooperstown ballots and deciding season-long individual honors, but Utley's first impression with a new contract in toe is the same as his previous one.
This guy is really good.
He leads the club with six Spring homers and 17 runs batted in while hitting for a .349 average and an astounding .746 slugging percentage.
Such on-field play, culminating in a Silver Slugger Award last season, has afforded Utley certain privileges.
So while baseball is his passion, it's entirely possible fighting global warming is his purpose. And what about a sit down with Gore? Has he earned it?
He's likely good enough.
Tomorrow: Ryan Howard
Thursday, March 29, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
By Steve Lienert
The Phanatic Magazine
Day 33 - Jimmy Rollins
According to Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies are ready to J-Roll right into the playoffs, which would be a first for him in his career.
Much of that may hinge on Rollins, who has finally accepted his role as the leadoff hitter of the franchise.
Let's flash back to 2004, the year Kenny Lofton made Rollins' leadoff experience a pleasant one. Let's also remember that that team was Bobby Abreu's team and Pat Burrell's team, not Chase Utley's and Ryan Howard's.
Back then it seemed that Rollins was too cool for school, which wasn't unlike the attitude of other "team leaders" on the '04 version of the Fightin's.
But this is '07 and clearly Rollins' attitude has undergone an adjustment.
He's already come out and said that the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East.
And he's backed that up in spring training with 22 hits in 57 at-bats for a robust .386 batting average. His 12 walks and .493 on-base percentage both lead the team this spring, but perhaps more importantly, he's struck out just four times and he has swiped five bags thus far.
Rollins has seemingly accepted his role in this baseball life. He's a leadoff hitter and a table-setter for the bigger guns further down the lineup, even though he fancied himself as one of the big guns himself.
He's also stepped up in the leadership category, especially since the Phillies dealt Abreu to the Yankees last summer. He seems more comfortable as part of the Utley- Howard regime, and a happier Rollins is a more productive Rollins.
He's also one of the best fielding shortstops in all of baseball. He's never committed more than 14 errors in a season and he made just 11 gaffes in 446 attempts in 2006.
While Mets' shortstop Jose Reyes gets most of the hype, Rollins is as close to Reyes as anyone can get without actually being Dominican.
Come Monday, here's hoping he can put his bat where his mouth is.
Tomorrow: Chase Utley
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
By Michael Rushton
The Phanatic Magazine
Day 32 - Pat Burrell
If hindsight is 20/20, what is Pat Burrell, because the Phillies left fielder may still not be seeing things clearly.
Coming off a disastrous 2006 season, Burrell hasn't had a calm, relaxing spring either.
First came the verbal assaults from both Dallas Green and Mike Schmidt, coupled with the unkept secret that the Phillies tried -- and failed -- to move him in the offseason.
"When their careers are over, they are going to wonder how much they left on the table, how much they left on the field," Schmidt said in reference to Burrell and Cincinnati's Adam Dunn. "If only they had choked up with two strikes, spread their stances out. What they are doing now is not great. It is mediocrity."
All of that added fuel to the already popular winter discussions that the Phillies impending success hinged on Burrell's ability to protect last season's MVP, Ryan Howard, in the lineup.
Throw in a mix of back pains, numerous questions about Burrell's troublesome right foot and his brand-new contact lenses, and all of that about sums up the most talked about player this offseason.
Wouldn't it be great if Burrell's eyes were the only problem the slugger was having? If his dismal 2006 season, a campaign that saw him hit just .258 and strikeout 131 times in 144 games, was the product of poor vision only? Perhaps Burrell just couldn't see the runners on base, prompting him to bat just .222 last year with RISP.
But in fact, Burrell isn't even using the contacts.
"I could understand if I went to them and said, 'I'm not seeing anything,'" Burrell told MLB.com. "I never complained. This guy gave me a screening and said, 'You need to come in.' I said I'll try them. They don't help."
So it's not so early with Burrell, who has done little to silence his critics this spring. In 19 games so far, he is hitting just .204 (10-for-49) with three doubles, three homers and nine RBI. He has fanned 14 times as well, which is actually fewer than Howard and Chase Utley.
Burrell, though, feels he is coming along and is finally healthy. Maybe he just can't read the stat sheet.
"I think I'm progressing pretty good," said Burrell in an article on Phillyburbs.com.
"It's just a matter of being healthy," he later added in the story. "That's the whole key."
Still, it's Burrell's inconsistency that is most frustrating, especially to the fans. It may be easier to accept Burrell for what he is if he was always bad. But the left-fielder turns it on one year, and then off the next.
In 2005, he batted .281 with 32 homers and a career-high 117 RBI. In 2002, he blasted a personal best 37 homers.
Yet, he has batted more than .260 just twice in his seven-year career. He has also struck out 1,017 times to just 569 career walks.
Even in his biggest hindrance last year, he was madly inconsistent. With runners in scoring position, if I'm reading the stats correctly with my glasses on, Burrell hit .300 against lefties. However, he hit only .195 against right-handers.
Overall, only four of his 29 home runs last season came with runners in scoring position. Alarmingly, the only person not concerned about Burrell's RISP numbers is manager Charlie Manuel.
"When you look at that, people pick that out," manager Charlie Manuel told the Trenton Times in a Tuesday article. "But let me tell you something: that happens all the time. I guarantee you that some of the greatest hitters in the game didn't have a high percentage of knocking runners in from second base sometimes. Some of them, for their entire careers didn't have a high percentage and got away with it."
Predicting Burrell's season is near impossible, but his impact will be great. A 2005 Burrell batting fifth will no doubt vault the Phils to the top of the East. An '06 Burrell will make it that much harder and, depending on how you view the argument, could hurt Howard as well.
Some things are just tough to see.
Tomorrow: Jimmy Rollins
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
By John McMullen
The Phanatic Magazine
Day 31 - Shane Victorino

Addition by subtraction -- you hear it often in sports.
It can't be quantified but you sure know it when you see it.
On paper replacing Bobby Abreu with Shane Victorino looked like a big step backwards for the Phillies. And a numbers guy like Bill James would have told you it was suicide.
There's only one problem with all of that, the Phillies did get better with the lesser but grittier player.
If you were wondering where Victorino developed his passion for the game, look at his journey to the big leagues. The fleet-footed outfielder was born in Hawaii and the Islands are not exactly known as a baseball hotbed.
But, Shane took advantage of his only chance. While scouts were in Honolulu observing pitching prospect Jerome Williams, Victorino put on a show as a blazing fast high school shortstop on the neighboring island of Maui.
"Everybody scouting [Williams] in Oahu heard about me in Maui," Victorino told MLB.com. "All of a sudden, in my senior year, there were all these people in nice collared shirts and slacks. It was nice to get that chance and the recognition."
The Dodgers were the most impressed and took him in the sixth round of the amateur draft. Eventually, Victorino signed for $115,000 and was off to the mainland.
The Phillies swiped him from Los Angeles in the 2004 Rule 5 draft and then worked out a deal to keep him after he failed to make the team out of the Grapefruit League. It was a wise decision. Victorino blossomed at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre in 2005, earning the International League's MVP Award.
Still, no one could give a remotely compelling argument saying that Victorino was a better baseball player than Abreu on the surface. Bobby was a fantasy geek’s wet dream. But, something was missing. Whether it was hustle, desire, the yearn to win or just chemistry with his teammates, Abreu’s time had run its course in Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, Victorino had already impressed many as the fourth outfielder early in 2006 and played even better when he was thrust into the starting lineup, first as an injury replacement for Aaron Rowand in center before taking over right when Abreu was sent to the Bronx.
In 153 games (80 starts), the Hawaiian hit .287 with 19 doubles, eight triples, six homers and 46 RBI. Defensively, he was a huge upgrade over Abreu and led the team with 11 assists.
Now firmly entrenched as a corner outfielder in a game obsessed with power, Victorino hopes to flash a little more pop to go along with his speed and defensive prowess.
“I'm comfortable now,” Victorino said. “It's another year of maturity, and I'm trying to get better every year.”
Tomorrow: Pat Burrell
Monday, March 26, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe

The Phanatic Magazine

Sunday, March 25, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
DAY 29: Rod Barajas
By Eric Redner
The Phanatic Magazine
The catcher position, along with the bullpen, could be the problem that turns a great Phillies season into another "wait until next year" that has been muttered all too often for a very long time.
So to address the need the Phillies inked Rod Barajas, the former Texas Rangers backstop, in the offseason to make up for the loss of Mike Lieberthal, who left the Phillies after 13 years of service to join the L.A. Dodgers.
Last season the Phillies survived, very well, platooning Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste after Lieberthal spent time on the D.L. and fan favorite Sal Fasano was released. While they did not put up huge numbers, they did do an adequate job. However, Pat Gillick brought in Barajas to be the starting catcher and he will handle the majority of games this season, with Ruiz the team’s backup.
To say the Barajas signing isn’t Pat Gillick’s finest hour is an understatement, in my estimation. Let’s review Barajas production at the plate:
Barajas hit a paltry .256 last season and that was his career-high over eight seasons. He also added 11 home runs and 41 RBI over 97 appearances last season with Texas.
He will most likely hit in the eight hole in a lineup that might have some production problems this season with Aaron Rowand, Wes Helms, Barajas and a pitcher making up the 6-9 spots, leaving the top of the lineup to be relied upon to produce.
Barajas does have a bit of power and hopefully he can improve on that over the course of the year. If he gets the bulk of the starts for the club and can produce say 15 home runs and somewhere in the neighborhood of 40-50 RBI with at least a .270 average he will help the team get some production from the bottom of the lineup.
He is having a decent spring thus far as he is hitting .300 with a home run and eight RBI
Guiding the pitcher through a game, keeping runners from swiping bases and being a roadblock at home plate is what catchers do. This is where Barajas will be his most help for the team. Last season he threw out 28 percent of potential base stealers and he works well with the pitchers.
While the catcher position is not terrible, it's far away from anything considered a strength. All we can hope from Barajas is that he won't lose games for the Phillies, because it is far from likely that he will win very many for the team.
Tomorrow: Aaron Rowand
Saturday, March 24, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
DAY 28: Wes Helms
By Tim McManus
The Phanatic Magazine
Ever since Scott Rolen decided that Philadelphia just wasn't his style back in 2002, the Phillies have been rather ill-equipped at the hot corner.
Placido Polanco was serviceable, but was really a second baseman playing out of position.
David Bell was supposed to provide stability at third, as he had just claimed team MVP honors for a Giants team that made it to the World Series. He, his back and his contract, though, proved to be an albatross rather than a solution for this club.
Abraham Nunez? Not so much.
This season, the Phils have apparently stopped trying to replace Rolen with one player, instead using the two-prong approach.
Nunez is the defensive side of the tandem, while newly-minted Phillie Wes Helms will wield the lumber.
Helms is an offensive upgrade for sure. While Nunez struggled mightily at the plate last season, Helms hit a career-best .329 with 10 homers and 47 RBI in 240 at-bats for Florida. He was part of a Marlins lineup -- consisting mostly of youngsters and journeymen -- that led a surprise playoff charge last season before eventually tailing off.
That was his only year in Florida, having played the previous three seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers. In his final campaign with the Brew-Crew, the North Carolina native posted a .298 batting average, which was a 35-point increase over his previous high of .263 at the time.
Helms started his career with rival Atlanta and spent parts of four seasons with the Braves, but was never a big contributor.
It appears that he has found his swing in recent years, though, and will add a boost to the back end of the Phils' lineup in '07. Expect him to slide back and forth along the No. 5, 6 and 7 slots, depending on Pat Burrell's production and Uncle Charlie's gut.
While he will be a solid addition offensively, Helms is a defensive liability by all accounts. This is going to force Manuel to mix and match in the latter stages of the game (gulp), using Nunez to protect a lead while calling on Helms to help dig out of a hole.
It's not an ideal situation. The best scenario would be to have a third baseman that can both rake and play the corner like a violin. Like Rolen, for example.
But the Phils no longer have such luxuries, and are just going to have to hope that the platoon philosophy works.
Tomorrow: Rod Barajas
Friday, March 23, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe

The Phanatic Magazine
Fiery to the point of detriment and fatigued due to excess baggage, the old Brett Myers would have moaned when skipper Charlie Manuel arose from the dugout steps to make a move to the bullpen.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe

The Ace. The Innings Eater. The Uninjure-able One. The One fans could count on every fifth day to give the team a fighting chance at victory.
Okay, strike the second to last one from the record.
I got three words for ya: Tight right bicep.
Let me lay two more words on ya: Disabled List.
Everybody was getting worried that the Phillies didn’t trade their “sixth” starter. Just yesterday, Jon Lieber even began to bitch after being moved to the bullpen.
Welcome back to the starting rotation, Jon.
During a spring training game against the Blue Jays on Wednesday, Freddy Garcia left in the first inning after giving up a mammoth home run to Troy Glaus, complaining of tightness in his right bicep.
That left his spring training earned-run average at a robust 11.42 in three Grapefruit League outings.
Whatever the curse of Philadelphia is named, it has struck again.
This was the guy that wasn’t supposed to get hurt. He was supposed to toss over 200 innings and win between 17-20 games this year.
One or the other certainly isn’t going to happen this year.
The fact of the matter is that Garcia has had a noticeable lack of velocity from that of previous years. He reportedly topped out between 88-90 mph before he departed against Toronto.
The two together add up to bad news for the Phils, who are suddenly down to five healthy starters, with Adam Eaton just a stubbed toe away from making it four.
In Garcia’s defense, he hasn’t pitched less than 200 innings in seven of his eight Major-League seasons. He has won more than 12 games in six of those seasons and never had an ERA higher than 4.53.
The bad news is that 4.53 came last season with the White Sox, in which he went 17-9 in 33 starts.
The Phillies would take that if they can get it. It appears that they won't, at least not this year.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe

DAY 25: Cole Hamels
By Michael Rushton
The Phanatic Magazine
There is probably a lot more riding on Cole Hamels this year than we are allowing ourselves to believe.
After all, this will be Hamels’ first year on an opening day roster and the highly regarded lefty has just 23 career starts under his belt.
Yet, there he is, thrusted right into the middle of a rotation that's being noted as one of the best and deepest in the National League. So how is Hamels’ taking all of this pressure?
"My goal every year is to try to make the All-Star team, to win as many games as possible, to be in a competition for, oh, a trophy or an award,” Hamels told the Associated Press on March 5.
At least he is setting the bar low.
As of now, the Phillies are carrying six capable starting pitchers on their roster. And much has been said of Adam Eaton’s past injury problems, but let us not forget Hamels’ history as well. His minor league career was plagued with elbow and back ailments. His back, in fact, still bothers him somewhat today. Also, he had what we will simply call a “bar incident” that resulted in an injury to his pitching hand while in the minors.
Still, there is enough reason to be optimistic about the former first-round pick.
Outside of a shoulder problem that landed him on the disabled list last season, Hamels enjoyed a relatively healthy season by his standards. He pitched five scoreless innings in his MLB debut last May, and ended up going a 9-8 with a 4.08 earned run average on the season. However, more notable was his 145 strikeout total over 132 1/3 innings.
One of his better performances came in mid-September, when he tossed 6 2/3 no-hit innings in what was a win over Houston.
We could also talk about his jaw-dropping minor league stats that include more strikeouts than we know what to do with. But those numbers are moot. Hamels is now in the big show, and is still developing. For starters, he is still working on his pitch sequence and establishing the inside part of the plate.
"I think it will help me out with finishing guys by setting up my changeup," Hamels told the Delaware County Times on March 16. "Guys know my changeup. It’s nothing new. In order to help that pitch, I have to establish the inside part of the plate.
There is some concern with Hamels’ numbers so far this spring. In three starts, he is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA. He has allowed seven earned runs in nine innings with five strikeouts and five walks.
But it is still spring, and numbers mean very little.
"He's worried about numbers. I don't worry about numbers here,” pitching coach Rich Dubee told philly.com. "I saw a lot of good things. First, his arm speed is getting there. Second, his arm angle is much better. He lost his tempo and lost his angle at times, but for the most part I thought he repeated his delivery better today. He established a much better temp and angle to his fastball."
The bottom line is, Hamels could very well dictate how this rotation performs as a whole. At 23 years old, Hamels isn’t in danger of being moved to the bullpen should he falter. For starters, that didn’t work with Gavin Floyd last season. Also, it is time to see what Hamels is made of.
Hamels could also end up being one of the most exciting players on Philadelphia’s roster. He has enough out-pitches that a no-hitter is always possible. A high strikeout total is also very likely, if he is on.
But Hamels is what he is, another reason to believe.
Tommorrow: Freddy Garcia
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
DAY 24: Adam Eaton
By John McMullen
The Phanatic Magazine
Some scoffed when the Phillies signed Adam Eaton to a three-year, $24.5 million dollar contract over the winter.
In these parts, the right-hander might be remembered for being the 11th overall selection in the 1996 amateur draft or for being traded -- along with Carlton Loewer and Steve Montgomery -- for Andy Ashby.
Around baseball, he‘s known for his injuries. Eaton has landed on the disabled list five times in the last six seasons and was the ignominious winner of Sports Illustrated's Dumbest Injury of 2001 award.
In case you are wondering, Eaton’s shame involves a couple of DVDs, a knife and a trip to the emergency room. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound pitcher was struggling to open a pair of DVDs so he broke out a knife to slice open the package and ended up stabbing himself in the stomach.
You can tack that on to the traditional injuries. Eaton has found himself on the DL with elbow, groin and hand problems over the years. He‘s also already undergone Tommy John surgery and missed nearly four months recovering from April finger surgery last year.
When you add it all up, Eaton has missed almost two full major league seasons. So while most expected Eaton to be part of the Phillies’ starting rotation, it was probably a good idea to write him in with a pencil.
Few question Eaton's skill. In 146 big-league games, he has a solid 54-45 record and 4.40 earned run average in his stints with San Diego and Texas.
“His fastball looks easy, but has a lot of life,” catcher Chris Coste told the Wilmington News Journal. “It gets on you faster than people think. Plus, he's got three other pitches to go with it - a curveball, changeup and slider.”
That said, the constant injuries are a concern and Phillies general manager Pat Gillick had admitted signing the hurler was a bit of a risk. But, the Phils braintrust is banking on the fact that Eaton's arm is healthy and that his various finger issues are now cleared up.
“That's the reason we kind of went out on a limb the way we did,” Gillick said. “We think that he really hasn't touched his potential. We think there is a heck of a lot more in there.”
The limb Gillick is on doesn’t include trading his insurance policy, however. Gillick recently said he wasn’t going to trade any of his six starters before the April 2 season opener against Atlanta. If “Stand Pat” is true to his word, that means Eaton or Jon Lieber will be headed to the bullpen.
"A lot of things go through my mind," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said to the Philadelphia Inquirer regarding his extra starter. "We're still in that meeting stage. We're still discussing things. Is it unfair [sending a starter to the bullpen]? I don't know about that. People ask me a lot of things that I think are unfair. This game is a game. If it makes us better to do something, believe me, I'm all for doing it. And I'm sure that player probably is, too."
Eaton’s stuff certainly translates to the pen better than Lieber’s but Eaton is part of the future and is making over $8 million per year.
So, expect Lieber to be the long man until the Phillies can unload him.
Tomorrow: Cole Hamels
Monday, March 19, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
DAY 23: Jamie Moyer
By John McMullen
The Phanatic Magazine
Let's get all the age jokes out of the way...
Jamie Moyer sat next to Moses in history class...
His social security number is in Roman numerals...
And when Methuselah needs advice, he comes to Jamie.
Of course, so do the Phillies. Recently, general manager Pat Gillick and pitching coach Rich Dubee actually asked the 44-year-old soft-tossing lefty to talk with a group of minor-league pitchers.
The thinking was a young pitcher might be able to a learn a thing or two from a guy who has built a 23-year pro career with less than stellar stuff. Heck, even most veterans could learn a thing or two from Moyer.
The majority of MLB pitchers with "good stuff" aren't exactly known for their ability to pitch. You've all heard the phrase a hundred times -- 'million dollar arm, 10-cent head.' Too many talented hurlers rely on their arms to get them 10-12 wins and ignore the mental aspect of the game.
And the Phillies don't have to look all that far to find one of those pitchers. You put Brett Myers' arm on Jamie Moyer and you probably have a consistent 17-20 game winner.
But, that's not possible so Philadelphia will look to get 10-12 wins from Moyer's "junk" and hope Myers and Cole Hamels develop more consistency, while watching a true professional pitch.
Moyer arrived in the majors during the 1986 season, a time when many of his contemporaries were in grade school. Over the years, the crafty lefty has won 216 games, seventh-most among active pitchers, and developed a rep as an overachiever.
After being acquired from Seattle last season, Moyer did his best to try and will the Phillies into the playoffs, recording a 5-2 record with a 4.03 earned run average in just eight starts.
He was rewarded in October with a a two-year contract extension that will take him through the 2008 season.
"He amazes me, but he has more patience than the hitters," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel told the Wilmington News Journal. "He understands how to pitch. In and out, up and down. He changes speed and he knows what he's been doing. He's been doing it for years and years. I've been watching him for a long time. As long as he does that, he can keep his job."
And that job just happens to be part of a rotation that's considered to be the best in the National League East.
Tomorrow: Adam Eaton
Sunday, March 18, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe

DAY 22: Jon Lieber
By John Gottlieb
The Phanatic Magazine
Now just a little more than two weeks away from when the Phillies open their season against Atlanta Jon Lieber still finds himself waiting to get traded.
It's simple math. The Phils have six starting pitchers for five spots. Someone is getting jobbed and it won't be Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, or Jamie Moyer. It probably won't even be Adam Eaton, of course that is until he gets hurt, which leaves Jon Lieber.
Amidst talk of who the backup outfielder and catcher will be, or who's going to make the cut for the open bullpen spots, Lieber has quietly gone out and had a nice spring.
He's 0-0 in two starts with a 1.50 earned run average, allowing one run in six innings. More importantly, he's getting ground balls which is the key to his repertoire.
Is he going to Toronto for Alex Rios? Might he be packaged in a deal with Aaron Rowand to the White Sox for Joe Crede, Rob Mackowiak, Mike MacDougal and a minor leaguer or two? It doesn't really matter to Lieber.
He is the classic team guy. The soft-spoken righty even told the Bucks County (Pa.) Courier Times, "I'm going to do whatever they tell me to do. If they want me in the bullpen, I'll go down to the bullpen. If they want me to start, I'll start. If they want to trade me, they'll trade me. … I'm just getting ready. I'll be pitching somewhere."
Lieber is a hot commodity in a market that's gone nuts for starting pitching. He's made seven Opening Day starts and is making a bargain-basement $7.5 million in the walk year of his contract.
If it was my decision I never would've signed Adam Eaton, who will be lucky to make it to the All-Star break without a least two trips to the disabled list, but Lieber will almost certainly end up somewhere and be a productive back-of-the-rotation starter.
It seems the only way he will get a staring spot in with the Phillies is if Tom Gordon was lost for a significant time with an injury and Brett Myers was moved into the closer's role.
Remember it was only two years ago that Lieber won 17 games for the Phillies, two years after missing a season with Tommy John surgery. Apparently, Charlie Manuel and Pat Gillick have short memories.
He struggled early last season but he has been a consistent pitcher throughout his career. Lieber went 9-11 with a 4.93 ERA while having three times as many strikeouts as walks.
He really turned it on after the trading deadline when the Phillies were battling for a playoff spot, winning five of his last seven decisions. The 36-year-old also went into the sixth inning in all but one of his last 11 starts in 2006.
Lieber has a career record of 126-115 with a 4.26 ERA in 361 outings, including 314 starts.
The Phillies are going to be in the postseason hunt again and Lieber has got playoff experience, unlike Hamels, Eaton and Myers.
Sadly, the Phils will almost certainly deal Lieber to an American League club, and then be left scratching their heads in June and July when they are looking for a starting pitcher for the stretch run.
Tomorrow: Jamie Moyer
Saturday, March 17, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
DAY 21: Tom Gordon
By Tim McManus
The Phanatic Magazine
Phillies fans, pink elephant. Pink elephant, Phillies fans.
Now that you've acknowledged the 39-year-old arm of Tom Gordon, let's dive into what we can expect here.
When pundits talk about the uncertainty in the bullpen, it's normally focused on the men that are responsible for putting the ball in Gordon's hands. This is mostly because "Flash" was very good last season, providing stability in an otherwise erratic 'pen en route to 34 saves and a 3.34 earned run average.
A look at his resume shows 2006 as a blip rather than a regularity, however, making the decision to just pencil Gordon in for a similar season pretty dangerous.
The save total, for example, is the second most since his debut in 1988, trailing the 46-save mark he posted back in 1998 with the Boston Red Sox. He put up 38 more saves over the course of the next two seasons, but then went five years without being a team's everyday closer. That was, until he shifted from being the Yankees' set-up man to the Phils' go-to guy last year.
Gordon showed that he still had the stuff to get it done, but as feared and forecast, he went through a dead-arm period during the time of year when contenders can ill-afford to be without one of their top arms. From August 13 to September 3, he was sidelined with a strained right shoulder. It was proof that Gordon was fatigued in the latter stages of the campaign, turning his All-Star form into something less than.
This spring, he was shipped back to Philadelphia from Clearwater with reported discomfort in his forearm and elbow. His checkup apparently went fine and his stay in Philly was brief, but it served as a reminder that a lot of people's hope is riding on a fragile limb.
General Manager Pat Gillick realizes this and has tried to make reserve plans. He brought in Antonio Alfonseca, who at one timed served as a high-end closer, and has unabashedly been shopping the likes of Jon Lieber and Aaron Rowand in the name of relief arms.
In order for the Phillies to make the postseason, Gillick must pull something off. It doesn't need to be immediate, as Gordon is likely to stay healthy and effective up through the All-Star break.
But all indications are that the aging closer will fall off as the second half wears on, and a trip or two to the DL should be expected.
There needs to be a rock-solid Plan B.
Tomorrow: Jon Lieber
You can contact Tim at tmcmanus@phanaticmag.com
Friday, March 16, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
DAY 20: Abraham Nunez
By Jared Trexler
The Phanatic Magazine
As the saying goes, you are what you are. Except of course, when you aren't.

Abraham Nunez perhaps pulled wool over the Phillies' eyes during his 2005 walk year in St. Louis, filling in admirably for Scott Rolen at the hot corner and batting a respectable .285 with five homers and 44 RBI.
But, that isn't Abraham Nunez, not when his career average sits at .243 over 10 big league campaigns. The real Abraham Nunez is likely closer to last year's version -- mediocre to bordering on poor at the plate and above average bordering on fantastic with the glove.
Nunez batted just .211 last season, though in fairness, that average was much lower during sparse at-bats earlier in the campaign. David Bell was eventually shipped to Milwaukee in the cultural-changing fire sale, and Nunez was handed the job.
At times he looked overmatched at the plate, but he fared much better than Bell in the field. Yet, the disturbingly low offensive numbers convinced General Manager Pat Gillick to go shopping for a right-handed hitting third baseman in the offseason.
Enter Wes Helms, a man The Phanatic Magazine will profile later in this running preview section.
Nunez is now part of a quasi platoon -- playing likely 20 to 30 percent full-time with frequent entries as a late game defensive replacement.
Two men baseballreference.com list as comparable players at Nunez's age -- the other Ripken (Billy) and the current Phillies assistant general manager (Ruben Amaro).
Now you can see why Gillick picked up Helms.
The diminutive Dominican born infielder will still see a lot of action in pinch-hitting and field duties, but his brief days as the everyday third baseman are over.
And the Phillies are better for it.
He doesn't hit for power -- 18 career homers -- or average, nor does he have the speed to turn singles into doubles. He's an average middle to corner infielder with above average range and little God given ability at the dish.
In essence, he is what he is.
And unlike the end of last season, the Phillies are prepared for it.
Tomorrow: Tom Gordon
Thursday, March 15, 2007
35 Reasons to Believe
DAY 19: Jayson Werth
By Steve Lienert
The Phanatic Magazine
For what it’s worth, Pat Gillick sees something he likes in Jayson Werth.
Gillick was with the Orioles in 1997 when they signed Werth, and Gillick is the biggest reason Werth is down in
Werth missed the 2006 season after having two surgeries for a torn ligament in his left wrist, the first of which “didn’t work.”
The 28-year-old right fielder said the problem was “hard to find and hard to fix,” but he’s healthy now and vying for a spot on the Phillies’ bench, if not at Triple-A
For what else it’s worth, Phils’ skipper Charlie Manuel called Werth “a valuable player that has good power at the plate and can play different positions.”
The latter, at least, was evidenced in his last major-league season, where he played in 102 games for the Dodgers in 2005, making 37 starts in right field, 23 in center and 36 in left.
He entered 2006 as the potential starting left fielder for LA, but injuries throughout the season hampered his progress.
He should fit well with another Phillies’ outfielder, however – he struck out 114 times in 337 at-bats, hitting just .234.
So far this spring, he’s ahead of his pace: In nine games he’s gone 6-for-21 (.286) with two RBIs. And he’s only struck out five times, so maybe he’s got that a bit more under control.
He seems healthy, but the Phillies are still wary of his wrist and are bringing him along slowly. He’ll most likely start the season in
But for Werth, the equation is simple.
More hits + less strikeouts = roster spot. For what it’s worth.