Tale of the Playoff Tape: Colts at Ravens

By Jared Trexler

Today, The Phanatic will dissect Saturday's two divisional contests with the early game featuring Indianapolis (formerly Baltimore) at Baltimore, while the nightcap puts the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints on the Superdome turf.

The following is a unit-by-unit breakdown of each game. Sunday's games will be picked apart in Saturday's playoff breakdown.

#3 Indianapolis Colts at #2 Baltimore Ravens, CBS 4:30 p.m. (et)

Passing Game:

Indianapolis: Peyton Manning is possibly the best "timing" quarterback in NFL history. By that I mean Manning loves to work in rhythm and moves the offense like clockwork when his wide receivers are allowed to work in space. He reads the field better than any quarterback in the game -- part of his pedigree as a student of the game. Manning can check off a safety and a split second later deliver a post route in the opposite direction. Reason? He knows where his wide receiver is SUPPOSED to be. The offense can be disrupted by physical corners who press at the line of scrimmage and a pass rush that throws off Manning's mental clock. See Pittsburgh's approach last season, now take a more physical, faster version on the field Saturday. Manning will look to combat that by checking down to his tight ends. His 3-interception game against Kansas City in the wild-card round can't happen again. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne have trouble getting off the line of scrimmage at times and don't like to get hit. That could be a problem against the most physical secondary in the modern-day NFL. Look for Dallas Clark, who had nine catches in the wild-card round, to play an important role if Manning is under constant pressure.

Baltimore: Steve McNair makes a huge difference. It may not show up in his stats, but the veteran leadership McNair brings to the table exudes confidence and respect. Defenses can't tee off on the run as much because McNair has the capability to attack the field vertically. Pay close attention to Colts safety Bob Sanders' position. Sanders isn't Troy Polamalu and isn't as comfortable floating from a disguise position to the deep man in a Cover 2 on the same play. If Indianapolis is forced to bring Sanders into the box on a consistent basis, McNair will have his chances down the field to Mark Clayton or to thread the seam to Todd Heap.

Edge: Push. Manning is the better quarterback, but his propensity for looking dazed and confused in big games, coupled with going against the league's best pass rush causes concern. Also, Manning has a history of struggles against 3-4 defenses, and McNair will not be relied on to carry the load. The pressure will be off and a deep play-action pass or two isn't out of the question.

Running Game:

Indianapolis: Joesph Addai has had a stellar rookie season, but he hasn't faced a unit like Baltimore's front seven. The Ravens held Willie Parker to 55 yards -- in two games, while LT was held two yards below 100. The Colts like to zone block, and I'm not sure how effective that will be against a defense as fast as Baltimore's. The Ravens like to "occupy" blockers with one blizter only to bring another over the top. Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan likes overload bliztes off the edge, another effective tactic against a zone blocking scheme. The Colts must run Addai and Dominic Rhodes if for no other reason than to slow the pass rush on Manning. An early draw or two may also get the hard-charging Ravens back on their heels. Addai ran for 122 yards against the Chiefs, but Joe, "I don't think your PLAYING Kansas anymore."

Baltimore: Jamal Lewis is not the same running back he's been in years past, but he is physical in the mold of Jacksonville rookie Maurice Jones-Drew, who ran for 269 yards in the two meetings with the Colts this season. I still believe last week was a mirage, and if Indianapolis brings up a corner and floats Sanders at linebacker level -- basically putting nine men in the box -- Baltimore, unlike Kansas City, will not be afraid to test the Cover 3 set deep down the field and on deep dig routes. Lewis must set the tone for the game -- physical instead of speed.

Edge: Baltimore. No matter the running back, Indianapolis -- save last week's stunner against Johnson -- hasn't stopped John McMullen and Tim McManus on the ground. The front seven is too small, and if Lewis continues to reach the second level, Sanders will rack up tackles and Baltimore will rack up first downs. The Ravens want to limit Manning's total possessions to 10 or under, and the way to do that is chew up clock and stick to a running game that should pay dividends in the fourth quarter.

Defense:

Indianapolis: Colts supporters will shout, "Statistics be damned. Look what we did to the Chiefs." What Indianapolis did in front of a charged-up home crowd, while playing the disrespect card was impressive. But as the Tuna always likes to say, "You are what you are." The Colts have a small front seven that gets over-aggressive and doesn't take proper angles, leading to long runs. Sanders is a run-supporting safety and Nick Harper will be busy shadowing Clayton. The key for the Colts may be outside linebacker Cato June. Two fold, June must support the run and also cover Heap off play action. June loves to make big plays, but he needs to stay disciplined.

Baltimore: What's not to like about this defense, and once more, what's not to like about their matchup. Teams that get cute versus the Ravens pay, so Indianapolis must be efficient and stick to its offensive beliefs. The problem lies in the matchups of Harrison-Chris McAlister and Wayne-Samari Rolle. Both love to play press coverage, especially with Ed Reed looming behind. Adalius Thomas and Bart Scott are ferocious off the edge, and Ray Lewis -- while he's lost a step -- is still a premier inside linebacker.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 13. The matchup isn't a good one for Manning and company. The Ravens play a similar scheme to New England and Pittsburgh, but this year anyway, are better at it. Watch Ryan's overload blitz packages. Harrison and Wayne must be willing to cut off their routes and be prepared to take hits from Baltimore's corners not giving 10-yard cushions. The difference will be Lewis' success on the ground, leading to two big pass plays down the field. Those big plays will be the difference.