Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Sometimes statistics lie


By John McMullen

You have to love the Andy Reid apologists.

It’s always fun to watch a pathetic group of enablers hang on to one statistic like a drowning man clinging to a life preserver.

The statistic? NFL teams were just 1-of-19 in 4th-and-15 or plus situations in 2006 -- that’s just a six percent success ratio. Punting the ball, according to the day after talking points, was the proper move.

"It was just playing the odds," Jeff Garcia said.

If only the Birds were in Atlantic City.

Perhaps, what’s even more humorous is that the “Big Red fan club” thinks that little nugget was news to the rest of us that criticized the rotund one’s decision to punt the Birds’ season away on Saturday.

It was as if they had to point out to the rest of us poor dimwits that 4th-and-15 was not a 50-50 proposition.

But, it’s Reid’s protectors that just don’t get it -- “By the book” coaching pervades the NFL nowadays and it’s exactly what is holding Reid back from making the jump to greatness.

You see, statistics can be illuminating. They are also black-and-white, emotionless numbers that, in this case, clouded the truth and prevented a seemingly intelligent individual from making a sound decision.

For instance -- does 1-for-19 take into account that the Eagles were on a short week and New Orleans had a two-week rest coming in?

Does it tell us the Saints had already run 15 more plays than the Eagles by that point?

Does it explain that Deuce McAllister is one of the best inside runners in football and was in the midst of a great game?

Does it let you know that the Eagles run defense was the team’s Achilles Heel all season?

And perhaps most importantly, Does 1-for-19 remember 4th-and-26? Because, the people in this town sure do.

Of course, honesty forces me to reveal that the Eagles season was likely doomed no matter which way Andy went. But, it sure would have been nice to go down swinging.

Instead your beloved Birds crashed and burned with their hands in their collective pockets.

Live with that for seven months.

-You can reach John McMullen at jmcmullen1@comcast.net

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Copyright 2007
The Phanatic

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

how much longer until you guys get a real website?

Anonymous said...

"The punt" was just one of many plays that cost the Eagles the game.