By Jeff Glauser
The Phanatic Magazine
AT A GLANCE: With teams as fundamentally different as their schools and locations, this eclectic region could bode to be the most exciting to watch play out. Though some may tout this as “Florida and the Rest,” some intriguing matchups might just bring early upsets to high seeds – and early elimination to many a pool participant. The trendy picks are Davidson over an underachieving Maryland or Old Dominion over once-hot/now-cold Butler.
Of course, the biggest storyline is, can the Gators become the first repeat champions since Duke in 1991-92? Though the general consensus is that they boast the nation’s best starting five (in juniors – and probable ’07 lottery picks – Joakim Noah and Al Horford, juniors Corey Brewer and Taurean Green and senior Lee Humphrey), recent tournament history proves that there is no such thing as a sure thing. Just ask no-doubt-about-it UConn, Stanford, Illinois and Duke in recent years.
Other questions: Can Alando Tucker carry Wisconsin? Can Oregon stay hot from behind the arc? Can Butler regain its early season swagger? Will the glass slipper fit Winthrop, Old Dominion or Davidson?
REGION STRENGTH: Depends on how one looks at it. Talent-wise, it may be at the bottom of the pack, as pedigrees and team depth – Gators notwithstanding – are few. However, from a competitive standpoint – because of presumed parity – this is the place to be.
DEAR MR. COMMITTEE: Defending Champ (and #1 seed) Florida in the Midwest, having to go through New Orleans and St. Louis to make it back to the Final Four, doesn’t seem very fair. So much for home court advantage. A # 4 seed for Maryland, which as recently as six weeks ago lost five of eight games, seems a bit high.
TEAM-BY-TEAM GLANCE:
#1 FLORIDA GATORS (29-5, 13-3 SEC)
What to Like: Perhaps the country’s best starting five. Experience – and success – in tourney play. Coach Billy Donovan is one sharp dude. Nice combination of size and talent. Every other team in the bracket certainly has its share of flaws.
What Not to Like: Borderline arrogance sometimes makes for complacency. How badly do they want to cut down the nets again? Are Noah and Horford looking ahead to the NBA? Losses to conference rivals Vanderbilt, LSU and Tennessee showed that, once they fall behind early, it’s extremely difficult for them to come back. In fact, Florida trailed by five or more at halftime in each of its losses this year.
Last until... they forget that every team in the tourney came to play – and no one is intimidated. In this writer’s eyes, a Sweet Sixteen shocker is not necessarily out of the question.
#2 WISCONSIN BADGERS (29-5, 13-3 BIG TEN)
What to Like: How quickly people forget that, just a month ago, Wisconsin was getting votes as the nation’s best team. Alando Tucker is a flat-out stud who is capable of taking over a game. Kammron Taylor plays a nice second fiddle. Bo Ryan is deservedly getting noticed as an upper-tier coach. Bench depth: 10 players average 10 minutes or more.
What Not to Like: The injury to big man Brian Butch hurts them badly. Finishing the regular season with three losses in six games doesn’t necessarily equate to momentum. Tucker basically needs to remain hot for them to go deep, which is a lot to ask.
Last until... Tucker’s flame burns out. However, who’s to say that’ll happen anytime soon? Favorable early round matchups could carry the Badgers deep.
#3 OREGON DUCKS (26-7, 11-7 PAC-10)
What to Like: These guys can shoot. Possibly the best three-point team in the country. Five players average in double figures, led by Iverson-sized Aaron Brooks. Even tinier Tajuan Porter (a mere 5 foot 6) is fun to watch. A regional advantage in the first couple rounds – no other school is located within a thousand miles. Riding a six-game winning streak – the last four in convincing fashion.
What Not to Like: Before that win streak, lost six out of eight – five of them to unranked teams. Major size issues: 6’9’’ Maarty Leunen is the only player over 6’6’’ getting significant time on the floor. Don’t expect them to bang with the big boys.
Last until... the threes stop falling and they get manhandled down low. Wisconsin could out-tough them if given the chance.
#4 MARYLAND TERRAPINS (24-8, 10-6 ACC)
What to Like: Three of top four scorers (led by Darrell’s son, D.J. Strawberry) are seniors. Gary Williams has taken similar experience all the way to a championship in the past. Very versatile and athletic. From a talent standpoint, could hold its own with anyone in the bracket.
What not to Like: Even with senior leadership and Williams, the Terrapins have missed the tournament the past two seasons. Capable of collapsing at any given moment. Prime example: Two of Miami (FL)’s four conference wins this year inexcusably came at the expense of Maryland.
Last until... they realize that there isn’t opportunity to take plays off. Could be the first upset of the tournament.
#5 BUTLER BULLDOGS (27-6, 13-3 Horizon)
What to Like: Small school from Indy became the talk of college hoops for much of the year, including an impressive run out the gate as Preseason NIT champs. What they lack in talent, they’ve made up in hard work and skill – always a scary combo for opponents. Also play lights-out defense: sixth in the nation in points allowed.
What not to Like: Seemed to fade by year’s end, losing four games in the last month alone. Not very big and not very athletic – not a good combo. Offense often relies on its defense.
Last until... they can no longer control their tempo with their ‘D.’ However, with their level of gusto and determination, a deep run for this former Top Ten team is not out of the question.
#6 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (24-7, 11-5 Big East)
What to Like: Surprise Big East team literally came out shooting and held its own in a tough conference. Nine wins by more than 20 points, including an astounding four by more than 35! After Oregon, perhaps the best perimeter team in the bracket.
What not to Like: The earlier loss of Kyle McAlarney to marijuana possession hurt. They can win big, but are they clutch? Four of seven losses were by three points or less. Not overly athletic.
Last until... a team plays them tight and forces them to take it to the hoop.
#7 UNLV REBELS (28-6, 12-4 MOUNTAIN WEST)
What to Like: Welcome back: Once-mighty Rebels showed they can run with the best of them once more. Four senior starters help set the tone. Coach Lon Kruger has had a taste of the Final Four.
What not to Like: Late season lopsided losses to BYU and San Diego State showed a tendency to coast at times and not keep a high energy level. A “happy to be here” mentality could lead to an early exit.
Last until... they decide not to play 40 minutes.
#8 ARIZONA WILDCATS (20-10, 11-7 PAC-10)
What to Like: Freshman phenom Chase Budinger is dangerous. But people don’t realize sophomore Marcus Williams had better stats this year. Don’t run and gun with them: 12-1 when they score at least 80. Shouldn’t be intimidated, as they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. Coach Lute Olsen’s been to the promised land.
What Not to Like: Problems seem to be more mental than physical. Considered underachievers all season. Went through a spell where they lost six of eight. Effort sometimes questioned.
Last until... the wrong Wildcats team shows up – or more accurately, doesn’t show up. Early exit or deep run both feasible.
#9 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (21-11, 9-7 BIG TEN)
What to Like: Senior dynamic duo of Carl Landry and David Teague play off each other well. Extended absence from the tournament could leave them with something to prove. Building off momentum of impressive turnaround from last year.
What Not to Like: No player of note really after Landry and Teague. 1-6 against ranked teams this year. Severely lacking in the size department.
Last until... a third option doesn’t step up.
#10 GEORGIA TECH (20-11, 8-8 ACC)
What to Like: Young and energetic, very quick. A lot of heart. Remember, it was only three years ago that coach Paul Hewitt rode an overachieving squad to the Finals.
What not to Like: Homesick, maybe? Lopsided home/away schedule resulted in an atrocious 3-10 on the road this year. Just one senior to provide leadership. Finished a forgettable seventh in its own conference.
Last until... they remember they’re not playing at home and face a team with more confidence.
#11 WINTHROP EAGLES (28-4, 14-0 BIG SOUTH)
What to Like: One of the hottest teams in the country, riding an 18-game win streak into the postseason. Played Wisconsin tight earlier in the year, might get the chance at Sweet Sixteen retribution. The first undefeated Big South season in conference history. Can take it to the hoop with the best of them.
What Not to Like: Four games against ranked opponents. Four losses. Not great beyond the perimeter. Need to stay tough to win: three of four losses they were outrebounded.
Last until... they remember that they’re not George Mason. Until then, could have some fun.
#12 OLD DOMINION MONARCHS (24-8, 15-3 COLONIAL ATHLETIC)
What to Like: Loaded with upperclassmen, led by sharpshooter Valdas Vasylius, who know how to win: 76 wins in the past three years. Solid on defense, adept at forcing turnovers, commendable intensity. Could get streaky.
What Not to Like: Several “huh?” losses to putrid James Madison and (this year’s) George Mason squad makes one scratch one’s head. Offense suffers when pressure is laid on thick.
Last until... they can’t find room down low. If field goal percentage doesn’t stay high.
#13 DAVIDSON WILDCATS (29-4, 17-1 SOUTHERN)
What to Like: Quick and unrelenting, they gave last year’s Ohio State squad a scare in the tournament. Be on the lookout for future star (and son of former NBA star Dell) Stephen Curry, who can score at will. Excellent combo of youthful exuberance and discipline. Finished regular season by rattling off 13 straight.
What Not to Like: Faced one formidable opponent this year – Duke – and failed the test miserably, losing by 28. Only know how to play one way – fast and furious.
Last until... their pace is slowed down. They get manipulated on low post defense. They get tested.
#14 MIAMI (OH) REDHAWKS (18-14, 10-6 MAC)
What to Like: Typically plays hard on both sides of the court. Record a bit deceiving, as they lost several nailbiters. Forward Tim Pollitz can do a little bit of everything.
What Not to Like: 18-14 in a mid-major conference is still 18-14 in a mid-major conference.
Last until... they get on the court.
#15 TEXAS A&M – CORPUS CHRISTI ISLANDERS (26-6, 14-2 SOUTHLAND)
What to Like: Uber-veteran squad (seven seniors) has deep roster which spreads the ball around (eight players played at least 30 games, averaging at least 15 minutes and 5 points). New D-I team has size and doesn’t do any one thing poorly.
What Not to Like: Even with an impressive record, they rarely dominated an opponent, which is concerning with a fairly simple schedule.
Last until... they can say Texas A&M – Corpus Christi Islanders. It’s a mouthful.
#16 JACKSON STATE TIGERS (21-13, 12-6 SWAC)
What to Like: Scoring machine Trey Johnson averages 27.1 points per game. That’s a lot.
What Not to Like: Six losses in a joke of a conference. Three other losses by more than 25 points. Extremely small.
Last until... you’re kidding, right?
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