No worries, Phillies fans

By Tim McManus
The Phanatic Magazine

I know, their performance this spring has you rethinking your postseason predictions, right?

Their best hitter is floating around the Mendoza line; several of the key figures will be lucky to escape Florida with a .250 average; the new pieces haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire; the bullpen's been spotty...

Maybe you're right -- maybe the Mets are doomed.

Oh, we're talking about the Phils?

Could've fooled me. Take a look at the vitals from the defending NL East champs:

-- Carlos Delgado is hitting an even .200 with no homers.

-- Paul Lo Duca is batting .208; Moises Alou has nine hits in 57 tries (.158); and David Wright has one homer to 16 strikeouts.

-- Shawn Green touts a .145 average with 15 Ks.

-- Ambiorix Burgos is 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA; Chan Ho Park, destined for the bullpen, has an identical earned run average, and has coughed up four home runs already.

This has added up to a 10-20 record, good for dead last in the National League.

The Nationals, penned in by some to hit the 120-loss mark, are three games better than the team that ran away with the division last season.

And it all means notta thing.

Hopefully, this brings perspective.

If you think that Ryan Howard is due to follow up his Rookie of the Year and MVP seasons with a dud because of his performance in Spring Training, than you must say the same thing about Delgado, who has a .282 career average and is usually good for 35-40 homers a year.

If you think that Aaron Rowand's going to struggle because of his .185 mark, than what does that imply about Alou, who's hitting .143 points below his career average?

The results mean nothing. Sometimes teams tear it up in Spring Training and start the season off ice cold (like the Phils over the past two seasons, for example). Sometimes it's the opposite, and sometimes a team has a regular season that mirrors their spring -- but it's never because of it.

The two must be kept separate, because in the exhibition season, strategy and normal behavior are largely stripped away.

For example, a pitcher may throw three innings, with the focus being on hammering out the kinks in his changeup. So where he'd normally throw nine changeups over that span, say, he'll throw 22 instead.

His line may read: 3 IP, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1K, 3BB because the batters have picked up on a trend, but as long as he got his changeup working by the end of the outing, it was a successful day.

Hitters, too, often approach their at-bats differently. Maybe Howard has been working on punching hits through the left side of the infield to take advantage of a shift. Pat Burrell might be focusing solely on fending off outside strikes. Rowand could be adjusting to a new stance.

Of course, most fans aren't privy to this kind of information, and are forced to form an opinion through a box score or a TV set.

It's all a big, long stretch before the marathon, though. To search for meaning in the outcome -- especially when minor league players are heavily involved -- is an exercise in futility.

You have the whole summer to worry; enjoy the last few games here, when your closer can give up a three-run shot in the ninth, and there will still be a nice round "O" in the loss column.

It doesn't matter 'til it matters.

Tim appears on this page every Thursday. You can contact him at tmcmanus@phanaticmag.com