Monday, March 28, 2011

Scouting the NL East: New York Mets

By Michael Rushton

Philadelphia, PA - Fans of the New York Mets decorate themselves from head to toe in blue and orange, but the color green has taken over in Flushing.

As in the color of money.

In the words of Staten Island-born super rap group the Wu-Tang Clan, cash rules everything around the Mets right now. From ownership's involvement in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme to the club's highest-paid player slated to be out until at least the All-Star break, New York's offseason didn't resemble one of a team coming off a disappointing finish. That has the Mets looking more like the broke versions of Randolph and Mortimer Duke than a club that was a consistent challenger during the later part of last decade.

Of course, if the Mets can get some bounce-back years from a handful of players, it will prove they didn't need to be big spenders this winter. However, not having starting pitcher Johan Santana until late June because of left shoulder surgery at the earliest won't help things one bit.

New York's finances were under the microscope all offseason, including the impact of the Madoff incident that now includes allegations that owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz actually made $300 million in the scheme. Still, New York's ownership group, Sterling Equities, is looking to sell a small stake in the club, up to 25 percent, and the Mets didn't add a big name in free agency.

Part of that was because the franchise came out of its 79-83 finish owing $111.5 million to eight players in 2011, including a combined $18 million to busts Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, a pair of players who were given their release from the club in mid-March just three days apart.

Castillo's exit opened up the competition at second base, while Perez's departure ended a span that began with a three-year, $36 million deal prior to 2009 and ended with him going 0-5 in 17 games (7 starts) in 2010 with a 6.80 ERA and 42 walks in 46 1/3 innings.

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are also set to hit the open market this winter, but New York will take big seasons out of the duo if it will help the club get back into the postseason for the first time since 2006. Reyes, Beltran, Jason Bay and new-comer Chris Young are among those hoping to return to form after injury-impacted 2010 seasons.

While the Mets couldn't shed the salary of disappointing players, somebody had to pay the price for last year's finish, so both manager Jerry Manuel and much-analyzed general manager Omar Minaya are out. Terry Collins, in his first manager role since 1999 with the Angels, replaces Manuel after serving as a minor league field coordinator for New York last year, while former Oakland general manager Sandy Alderson takes over for Minaya.

New York also added former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi as a special assistant.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2011 edition of the Mets, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2010 FINISH (79-83) - Fourth Place (NL East)

KEY OFFSEASON ADDITIONS: Scott Hairston (OF), Chris Young (RHP), Willie Harris (OF), D.J. Carrasco (RHP), Taylor Buchholz (RHP), Ronny Paulino (C), Chris Capuano (LHP), Brad Emaus (2B)

KEY OFFSEASON SUBTRACTIONS: Pedro Feliciano (LHP), Sean Green (RHP), John Maine (RHP), Henry Blanco (C), Chris Carter (OF), Elmer Dessens (RHP), Kelvim Escobar (RHP), Hisanori Takahashi (LHP), Fernando Tatis (INF/OF), Joaquin Arias (INF), Luis Castillo (2B), Oliver Perez (LHP)

PROJECTED LINEUP: Jose Reyes (SS), Angel Pagan (RF), David Wright (3B), Carlos Beltran (CF), Jason Bay (LF), Ike Davis (1B), Josh Thole (C), Brad Emaus (2B)

PROJECTED ROTATION: Mike Pelfrey (RHP), Jon Niese (LHP), R.A. Dickey (RHP), Chris Young (RHP), Chris Capuano (LHP)

PROJECTED CLOSER: Francisco Rodriguez (RHP)

MANAGER: Terry Collins

INFIELD

New York hit just a collective .249 and plated 656 runs a season ago, finishing near the bottom in both categories in the National League. A healthy Reyes, though, should improve both numbers in 2011.

After missing all but 36 games in 2009, Reyes' season got off to a late start last year due to a hyperactive thyroid and he also dealt with both back and oblique injuries. In all, the shortstop played in 133 games and batted .282 with 83 runs scored and 30 stolen bases. That was a little less than the 100- run, 50-plus steal average that the Mets count on from their leadoff man.

Reyes' partner on the left side of the infield, David Wright, did hold his own though, hitting .283 with team bests in homers (29) and runs batted in (103). Wright finally found his power at the new Citi Field, hitting 12 homers at home after managing just five in the ballpark's debut season in '09.

New York also got some solid contributions from a pair of rookies in first baseman Ike Davis and catcher Josh Thole.

The Mets opened the season using Mike Jacobs and Fernando Tatis at first base, but Davis became a fixture by mid-April and went on to hit .264 with 19 homers and 71 RBI in 147 games. Thole, meanwhile, worked his way into the lineup in July and ended up catching 73 games while hitting .277. The job is his full time to start 2011.

Castillo's release ends a tenure with the Mets that began during the 2007 season and will perhaps best be remembered for his dropped popup that cost New York a game versus the Yankees during the 2009 campaign. His departure also opens the door for either Rule 5 selection Brad Emaus, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner or Collins' favorite Luis Hernandez to be the starting second baseman on Opening Day.

OUTFIELD

Though the three starters are set, that doesn't mean the Mets' outfield isn't without questions as both Beltran and Bay are hoping to recover from serious injuries last year.

Beltran did not make his debut in 2010 until after the All-Star break due to right knee surgery last offseason and has already battled knee tendinitis this spring. He wasn't very productive when he was on the field either, batting just .255 with seven homers and 27 RBI in 64 games and could even begin this season on the disabled list.

Not only will Beltran eventually be looking to shake off some rust at the plate, but he will also be playing a new position. The Mets opted to slide Beltran, a four-time Gold Glove winner at center, over to right field, with Angel Pagan taking over his old position after he led the club with a .290 average and 37 steals in 151 games. Pagan spent most of last season at center in place of the injured Beltran and the Mets are hoping the move for Beltran will take some pressure off his knee.

The crown jewel of last year's free agent haul, Bay's Flushing debut wasn't stellar. In the first season of a four-year contract, Bay missed New York's final 63 games because of a concussion suffered in late July and hit just .259 with six homers and 47 RBI. That came after an excellent 2009 with the Red Sox in which the righty set personal bests with 36 homers and 119 RBI. The Mets will be looking for similar production this year.

STARTING ROTATION

Replacing a pitcher of Santana's caliber isn't easy, something the Mets learned this winter. Knowing that their ace won't be back until the All-Star break after having a procedure to repair the anterior capsule of his left shoulder, New York was only able to land the likes of Young and Chris Capuano in free agency and both of those starters come with injury risks of their own.

The right-handed Young has made just 36 starts in the past three seasons, battling arm issues in the last two. He was limited to just four starts last season with the Padres, going 2-0 with a 0.90 earned run average in 20 innings, but should benefit from Citi Field's spacious grounds.

Capuano, meanwhile, has had two Tommy John surgeries on his left pitching elbow and has made only five starts since the start of 2008. Still, the two figure to round out New York's starting five behind Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey.

Dickey is the most interesting of those names given that the knuckleballer earned a multi-year contract for the first time in his career after going 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA in 27 games (26 starts) last year. The 36-year-old righty was arguably the Mets' most consistent pitcher in 2010.

The right-handed Pelfrey is the default ace, winning 15 games for the first time in his career after lowering his ERA from 5.03 in 2009 to 3.66 last year. The 27-year-old had 10 wins by June 25, but went just 5-7 in his final 18 starts with a 4.57 ERA.

Niese, a 24-year-old lefty, got his first extended taste of the majors and went 9-10 with a 4.20 ERA in 30 starts.

BULLPEN

Closer Francisco Rodriguez is hoping for a fresh start in 2011 after a strange conclusion to last season.

On the field, Rodriguez was solid. He saved 25 games with a 2.20 ERA in 53 appearances, but his season was highlighted by an incident with his girlfriend's father at Citi Field on Aug. 11 that resulted in attempted assault charges. The righty pled guilty to avoid jail time and is looking to repair his relationship with the Mets.

New York suspended K-Rod for two games after the incident and his season eventually ended early due to a torn ligament in his right thumb. The Mets attempted to convert his contract into a non-guaranteed one due to the incident, but the two sides settled their grievance case in mid-October.

Rodriguez is owed $11.5 million this season and his 2012 option, worth $17.5 million, becomes guaranteed if he finishes 55 games this season.

New York's bullpen will have some fresh faces after the club lost both Hisanori Takahashi and Pedro Feliciano, who broke his own club record last year with 92 appearances.

Right-handers Manny Acosta (2.95 ERA in 41 games) and Bobby Parnell (2.83 ERA in 41 games) both figure to get the bulk of the late-inning work, while righties D.J. Carrasco and Taylor Buchholz, as well as 37-year-old southpaw Tim Byrdak, were added to the mix.

The left-handed Pat Misch was a candidate to start, but he could fill the long relief role, while righty Jason Isringhausen is looking to latch onto the club after being out of baseball for most of the past two seasons.

BENCH

The Mets added a veteran catcher to back up Thole when they signed Ronny Paulino, but he will miss the first eight contests of the season to finish up a 50-game ban issued last year while with the Marlins for violating the league's drug policy.

Murphy could be in line for more playing time this year at first and second base after missing all of 2010 with a knee injury, especially if he wins the starting job at second. However, he may be more useful to the Mets off the bench.

Scott Hairston and Willie Harris were both signed to add insurance to the outfield, meaning prospect Fernando Martinez is likely to start the year in the minors after playing in just seven games last season due to injury.

OUTLOOK

Injuries have derailed the Mets in the past two seasons and 2011 already has a hint of macabre to it with the loss of Santana. If healthy, New York's offense certainly has some potency and Reyes could be in line for a monster year given his pending free agency. However, Beltran's knee is a concern and Bay is aiming to come back from a serious injury of his own. There is also valid concern about the rotation given some of the injury history and the bullpen has questions too, especially if the Mets don't want Rodriguez's 2012 option to become guaranteed. New York is one of the harder clubs to figure out before the season gets going, but it won't be surprising if the franchise is swimming in mediocrity again before deciding to start over next season.

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