Monday, March 28, 2011

Scouting the NL East: Atlanta Braves

By Michael Rushton

Philadelphia, PA - It was The Beatles' Ringo Starr who sang "I get by with a little help from my friends." Should the Atlanta Braves make it back into the postseason for a second straight year, they may need to send a gift basket to a certain National League East rival.

The Braves returned to the playoffs last season for the first time since 2005, securing the NL Wild Card position with a second-place finish that was their highest since the last of 11 straight NL East titles six years ago.

Atlanta went into the 2010 season knowing it would be the last for long-time manager Bobby Cox, but his players couldn't reward the skipper with their first World Series title since 1995, falling in four games to the eventual World Series-champion San Francisco Giants in the NLDS. Cox's exit meant that, despite a 91-win season, change was coming.

Luckily for the Braves, the Marlins came to the rescue. Florida fired manager Fredi Gonzalez on June 23 and he became the instant choice to replace Cox at season's end, having spent four years on his staff from 2003-06. To no surprise, Atlanta hired Gonzalez on Oct. 13 after he went 276-279 during his three-and-a-half year tenure with the small-market Marlins.

Gonzalez has big shoes to fill as Cox won over 2,500 career games as a manager and led the Braves to five NL pennants and a World Series title. Good thing that he was able to take a parting gift with him as the Braves landed power- hitting second baseman Dan Uggla from Florida in exchange for utility All-Star Omar Infante and left-handed reliever Mike Dunn this offseason.

General manager Frank Wren, who was rewarded with a two-year extension on Feb. 21, wasted little time securing Uggla for the long-term, signing the former Rule-5 pick to a five-year, $62 million contract.

Wren has other magic to work now. He is counting on a rookie taking over at first base in Freddie Freeman while moving All-Star second baseman Martin Prado to left field to make room for Uggla. The Braves GM also needs bounce- back seasons from outfielder Nate McLouth and third baseman Chipper Jones, who is coming off left knee surgery.

The Braves are also replacing former closer Billy Wagner, who hung up his cleats for good following the 2010 season.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2011 edition of the Braves, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2010 FINISH (91-71) - Second Place (NL East)

KEY OFFSEASON ADDITIONS: Dan Uggla (2B), George Sherrill (LHP), Rodrigo Lopez (RHP), Scott Linebrink (RHP), Joe Mather (INF/OF)

KEY OFFSEASON SUBTRACTIONS: Omar Infante (INF), Matt Diaz (LF), Melky Cabrera (OF), Kyle Farnsworth (RHP), Takashi Saito (RHP), Troy Glaus (1B), Derrick Lee (1B), Rick Ankiel (CF), Mike Dunn (LHP)

PROJECTED LINEUP: Martin Prado (LF), Nate McLouth (CF), Chipper Jones (3B), Dan Uggla (2B), Brian McCann (C), Jason Heyward (RF), Alex Gonzalez (SS), Freddie Freeman (1B)

PROJECTED ROTATION: Derek Lowe (RHP), Tommy Hanson (RHP), Tim Hudson (RHP), Jair Jurrjens (RHP), Brandon Beachy (RHP)

PROJECTED CLOSER: Craig Kimbrel (RHP)

MANAGER: Fredi Gonzalez

INFIELD

Consistent power is something that has evaded the Braves over the last few years and Jones getting older isn't helping. That is why Atlanta went out and got Uggla, forsaking a bit of defense to add a player that set career highs last year with a .287 average, 33 homers and 105 runs batted in and is the first second baseman in MLB history to notch four straight seasons of at least 30 home runs.

Uggla will offer a little protection out of the clean-up spot for Jones and catcher Brian McCann. After hinting at a possible retirement at season's end a year ago, Jones eventually suffered a season-ending knee injury in August and is back to end his career on his own terms, whenever that may be.

Set to turn 39 in April, the former MVP and 2008 NL batting champion hit just .265 in 95 games with 10 homers and 46 RBI.

McCann has battled some issues with blurred vision over the past few seasons, but still led the team with 21 homers and 77 RBI last year. He is steady behind the plate and won his fourth Silver Slugger award.

The Braves got tired of waiting for Yunel Escobar to mature, so they shipped the young shortstop to the Blue Jays on July 14 in a trade that brought back Alex Gonzalez. A former All-Star with the Marlins, Gonzalez hit .240 with six homers and 38 RBI in 72 games with Atlanta.

Atlanta began last year trying Troy Glaus at first base, but he batted just .240 in 128 games and the Braves eventually traded for Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee. Though Lee was decent during his short time with the Braves, neither he or Glaus is back this season, opening the door for Freeman.

The rookie got a 20-game taste of the big leagues last year, but managed just four hits in 24 at-bats with a homer. The 6-foot-5 left-handed batter hit .319 with 18 homers and 87 RBI in 124 games last year with Triple-A Gwinnett, but also had his Arizona Fall League season cut short due to a thumb injury.

OUTFIELD

With the Braves landing Uggla, Prado shifts to left field, where he has just four games of experience. The hope is that Prado can make a successful transition and not let it affect his play at the plate after he hit .307 in 140 games last year with career highs in homers (15), RBI (66) and runs scored (100).

Atlanta is also counting on a powerful sophomore season from Jason Heyward, who won the starting right field job in camp last year and went on to hit .277 with 18 homers and 72 RBI in 142 games. That 21-year-old, ranked the top prospect in baseball prior to last season by Baseball America, finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting and should team with Uggla to give the Braves some serious power in the lineup.

The Braves thought they had filled their center field void when they traded for McLouth in June of 2009, but he has hit just .229 with 17 homers, 60 RBI and 127 strikeouts in 169 games since the deal and injury limited him to just 85 games last year.

McLouth, set to make $6.5 million this year, begins the season as the starting center fielder, but will be pushed by Jordan Schafer, who was the 2009 starter but struggled before a demotion and has also battled a wrist injury.

STARTING ROTATION

The Braves feature a rotation that contains three hurlers that made at least 33 starts last year, headed by 2010 NL Comeback Player of the Year Tim Hudson.

After a brief return from Tommy John surgery in 2009, Hudson and the Braves re-upped for another three years and the right-hander did not disappoint with a 17-9 record and 2.83 earned run average. Hudson's 228 2/3 innings pitched were the best for the hurler since 2003 with Oakland.

Righty and Opening Day starter Derek Lowe, 37, was second on the club with 16 wins, but also led the staff with 12 losses to go along with a 4.00 ERA in 33 starts. The veteran did finish strong, winning his last five starts with a 1.17 ERA before yielding just three runs in a pair of playoff losses.

The now and tomorrow of the Braves' rotation rests on the right shoulders of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens.

The 24-year-old Hanson followed up an 11-win 2009 season with a 10-11 mark and 3.33 ERA a season ago that was plagued by lack of run support and included a 10-start winless streak despite a 3.08 ERA in that span. Still, the future is bright for this former highly-regarded prospect.

Jurrjens, 25, battled through a hamstring ailment in 2010 to go 7-6 with a 4.64 ERA in 20 starts and will look for a healthier rebound this season.

With Japanese right-hander Kenshin Kawakami (1-10, 5.15 ERA in 18 games) absolutely bombing as a starter in his second season in the majors last year, the Braves opted to go with Brandon Beachy over lefty and 2009 first-round pick Mike Minor to round out an all right-handed rotation despite having yet to unload Kawakami's contract.

BULLPEN

Though he was pushing 40, Wagner turned in a solid final performance with 37 saves and a 1.43 ERA in 71 games. With the lefty riding into the sunset, right-hander Craig Kimbrel gets the first shot at replacing him.

If Kimbrel is to thrive in the ninth inning, he will need to cut down on his walks. He issued 16 free passes over 20 2/3 innings, but gave up just one earned run.

Waiting in the shadows, or more specifically the eighth inning, should Kimbrel struggle is lefty Jonny Venters, who posted a 1.95 ERA in 79 games last year as a key set-up guy. He'll handle the southpaws and give Kimbrel the occasional breather, with Peter Moylan (6-2, 2.97 ERA in 85 games) returning to shut down righties.

With the exit of Wagner and fellow reliever Takashi Saito, the Braves acquired right-hander Scott Linebrink from the White Sox and signed former southpaw closer George Sherrill as well. The addition of Sherrill, owner of 56 career saves, and the return of Eric O'Flaherty gives Gonzalez three left-handed options out of the bullpen.

Former starter and long reliever Kris Medlen won't be available until at least August due to Tommy John surgery.

BENCH

The loss of Infante cost the Braves a valuable plug off the bench, but the club is not without options.

Brooks Conrad originally saw time at third base last year after Jones' injury, but struggled mightily on defense and eventually swapped spots with Prado at second. That means he won't be getting into games late as a defensive replacement anytime soon, but he does hit from both sides of the plate and eight of his 39 hits last year were homers.

Schafer may not start the season on the Braves roster if he doesn't edge out McLouth in center, meaning Joe Mather will serve as the primary outfield reserve after being claimed off waivers from the Cardinals.

Eric Hinske (.256, 11 HR, 51 RBI) also returns after signing a one-year deal with a 2012 option and he offers insurance at left field as well as first base.

Catcher David Ross enters his third season with Atlanta after batting a solid .289 last year with two homers and 28 RBI.

OUTLOOK

While the days of an 11-year dynasty under Cox between 1995-2005 are long gone, the Braves do have a nice infusion of youngsters that should keep the team competitive for the next few years. As far as 2011 is concerned, the Braves have to wonder how much they'll be able to squeeze out of Jones, Lowe and Hudson this year. The addition of Uggla and a year of growth from Heyward should solve past power problems and getting leads will be important as Atlanta's biggest strength appears to be its bullpen. If Kimbrel can emerge as a legitimate closer, scoring runs late against Atlanta will be hard to do. Consider this club one of the top challengers for at least another wild card berth.

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