Baseball predictions for 2011

by Bob Herpen
Phanatic Magazine

The last time I dipped into a pool other than that of professional hockey, I was forced to be glued to the television as Roy Halladay turned in the second no-hitter in postseason history. So what better time than now to try my luck with some MLB predictions for the upcoming season.

NL East
Phillies (93-69)
*Braves (90-72)
Mets (84-78)
Marlins (78-84)
Nationals (73-89)

NL Central
Cardinals (91-71)
Reds (85-77)
Brewers (77-85)
Cubs (76-86)
Astros (75-87)
Pirates (63-99)

NL West
Giants (92-70)
Rockies (85-77)
Padres (81-81)
Dodgers (80-82)
Diamondbacks (65-97)

AL East
Yankees (96-66)
*Rays (94-68)
Red Sox (92-70)
Blue Jays (81-81)
Orioles (69-93)

AL Central
Twins (92-70)
White Sox (90-72)
Tigers (80-82)
Indians (72-90)
Royals (66-96)

AL West
Rangers (92-70)
Angels (88-74)
Athletics (85-77)
Mariners (67-95)

* Wild-card winners

NL Playoffs
Cardinals over Phillies
Giants over Braves

Giants over Cardinals

AL Playoffs
Yankees over Rangers
Twins over Rays

Yankees over Twins

World Series
Yankees over Giants

I think the Phillies' time as a bona-fide World Series contender has not yet passed, but there's a reason we called 2008 "The Perfect Season." All the crazy crap that usually befalls the other 29 teams from March through September didn't happen until the night the Phils were supposed to win and clinch the title -- and by then neither the Baseball Gods nor the ineptitude of the Commissioner's office could keep them from destiny.

Since then, a string of odd occurrences both on and off the field have derailed their quest to win another Fall Classic. In 2009, it was the atrocious home record due in no small part to the constant demands on their time in the community after winning it all, along with the fact that the Phils simply wilted when confronted with a better baseball club in the New York Yankees.

Last season, it was the inconsistent offense that just could not bail out all the quality pitching.

I think we're looking at another slide this season, first and foremost because it's just got to be tiring playing at an elite level for several years with the rest of baseball breathing down your neck. I can't help but feel that the stacking of the deck with the Four Aces will not be enough to overcome the lack of a bullpen, a relatively thin bench and the questions that remain about Chase Utley, the right-field quandary and hitting in key situations.

By no means am I suggesting it won't be a sweet ride -- just look at what I tabbed as the Phils' record -- but that another team whose one-shot deal is on the table will take them down. Sadly, that means in the space of four seasons, Philadelphia will go from World Series winner, to runner-up, to league runner-up to not making it out of the first round.