By Jared Trexler
Philadelphia, PA - Play somebody.
That was the resounding message sent by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee through its assembled 68-team field, most notably the 37 at-large selections that raised a few eyebrows in and around the bubble.
Let's not forget that this year's bubble teams had resumes not befitting normal at-large profiles, so griping is based more on a "what principles are you applying?" level than a Team A is that much better than Team B principle.
With that said, it appears the committee followed the RPI metric lambasted by basketball "people" and punished the power conference schools that went out of their way to load up on cupcakes during November and December.
Colorado had the nation's 325th toughest non-conference schedule that included a staggering five victories over non-Division I teams. The Buffaloes' lone Top-50 victory before Big 12 play came against Colorado State, and they missed out on two other chances against Georgia and Harvard.
Alabama finished 12-4 in the SEC, though that record was inflated by an unbalanced schedule that fattened the Crimson Tide's conference mark on the struggling West division. They played the 284th rated non-conference slate made worse by a horrid three-day run in the Paradise Jam preseason tournament. Because of losses in that event, Alabama faced the gauntlet of Seton Hall, Iowa and St. Peter's (losing all three) instead of winning the first or second game and getting the RPI points through playing tournament teams Xavier and Clemson.
That is the dice you roll in preseason tournament play, and in the games Alabama controlled, it racked up victories over teams like Troy, Southeast Louisiana and Florida A&M.
While it seemed the committee used a team's overall RPI to lower or elevate it in at-large discussion, it didn't seem to give credit to teams who beat other RPI Top 50 squads. Colorado had six such wins, including three over Kansas State. UAB, the most controversial selection, had one, over other debatable tournament selection, Virginia Commonwealth. Virginia Tech beat Duke and Florida State in the last two weeks, while the aforementioned Rams lost five of eight to end the season.
In the end, I don't have a problem with VCU's inclusion. It beat UCLA on a neutral floor in New York and went out of its way to play true road games at Wake Forest, South Florida and UAB. It only won one of those three, but the latter two especially helped its strength of schedule and RPI number. VCU tried to test itself in a scheduling environment that favors major conference schools. Colorado, Alabama and Virginia Tech filled up on automatic W's when they easily could have scheduled more challenging games.
UAB is a different story, but watch the Conference USA regular-season champ go out and win two games now that the nation is bemoaning its acceptance.
That's enough virtual real estate on teams that will play little in determining how the tournament unfolds. A detailed look below at each region should serve as a handy reference tool when filling out your bracket.
EAST REGION
Bracket Difficulty: Second out of four. This region is full of historical thoroughbreds -- Kentucky, Syracuse and North Carolina -- and that's before you get to top-seeded Ohio State, the most efficient team in the country with the best balance. The Buckeyes' weakness comes in its depth, but extended television timeouts during the tournament should negate the fatigue factor. George Mason blew through a Colonial Athletic Association that garnered three bids (seriously, look at the Patriots' margin of victory in conference). Kentucky and Washington won conference tournaments, and North Carolina claimed the ACC regular-season crown.
Sleeper: Washington. The Huskies are the nation's ninth most-efficient offensive team and have dealt with incredibly bad luck, statistically speaking, this season. The numbers warrant Washington a top-four (protected) seed, but narrow losses and late-game collapses have plagued this veteran team. Is it possible Isaiah Thomas' last-second shot to beat Arizona for the Pac-10 Tournament crown was the moment that flipped Washington's fortunes? With this much talent, absolutely, but there are two big negatives in its draw. It has to travel east (never a good sign for west coast teams) and play in Charlotte, a potential home game for North Carolina in a second-round contest.
Most difficult road: Boy, did North Carolina get screwed in a tournament based on matchups. The Tar Heels can be matched athletically by the Huskies, who also have the length to stand toe-to-toe with North Carolina's pair of All-ACC second-team bigs (Tyler Zeller and John Henson). The Huskies are the nation's 17th most-efficient team according to Ken Pomeroy, the best number for a team not in the top-four seed lines. If UNC gets past Washington, it will have to deal with Syracuse's 2-3 zone. The Tar Heels have struggled with zone defenses all season.
Dear Selection Committee: The East region sports one of the First Four games with UAB, the master at RPI manipulation, facing Clemson, in the field with nary a Top 50 victory. Both are questionable choices, but at least the Tigers pass the eye test. I thought Georgia was hanging on the at-large edge, but its seed indicates otherwise. You did see Alabama down the Bulldogs twice in the season's final week, right?
Predictions
2nd Round: Ohio State over Texas-San Antonio, George Mason over Villanova, Clemson over West Virginia, Kentucky over Princeton, Marquette over Xavier, Syracuse over Indiana State, Washington over Georgia, North Carolina over Long Island.
Sweet 16 teams: Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina
Regional final: Ohio State, Syracuse
East champion: Ohio State. No one can match the Buckeyes' size and speed. Depth only plays a factor when a team finds itself in foul trouble, and Ohio State just doesn't foul. That doesn't mean the Buckeyes don't play good defense, as they rank 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State will have the most trouble with under-seeded Kentucky, which dismantled Florida in impressive fashion in the SEC Tournament title game and seems to have finally found the formula to win away from Lexington. Yet, these Wildcats haven't been here before, and that intrinsic quality is what normally separates championship talent from raw talent. A Washington upset of North Carolina in the second round wouldn't surprise me since the teams are so even in every important statistical metric.
WEST REGION
Bracket Difficulty: First out of four. Many argued Duke received a free pass to Indianapolis last season, but the selection committee didn't do it any favors by putting Tennessee, which always seems to play up or down to its competition, Texas, Connecticut and home-favorite San Diego State in its way. It seemed just two weeks ago, the Longhorns were in the discussion for a top seed, and their efficiency numbers still put them in that territory despite a 4-4 mark down the stretch. Oakland (or Texas, depending on how you look at it) got the short end of the draw in a 4-13 matchup as both are under-seeded by at least one line. The Golden Grizzlies have major-conference size with 6-foot-11 Keith Benson and already beat Tennessee this season. Connecticut won five games in five days to capture the Big East Tournament title, so the Huskies either have little gas left or built-up momentum to take advantage of what looks like a favorable road to Anaheim.
Sleeper: Penn State. The Nittany Lions aren't a true "sleeper" as their staying power is likely to last until just Saturday, but the rest of the region looks like chalk. Memphis doesn't have the length to deal with Derrick Williams and Arizona, the aforementioned Golden Grizzlies received a tough draw against the Longhorns and Missouri won just one game outside Columbia since December, and that was against Iowa State. If Talor Battle can get free against Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore and the defensive intensity and rebounding efficiency carry over from the Big Ten Tournament, Penn State can move past the Owls in what looks like a nearly even matchup according the line-setters in Las Vegas.
Most difficult road: Texas. The Longhorns are the nation's top defensive team in terms of efficiency, and yet must beat a combination of Oakland, Arizona, Memphis, Duke, Connecticut and San Diego State to reach Houston. Talk about a tough road for a young, albeit talented front line and a coach, Rick Barnes, trying to get the underachieving monkey off his back.
Dear Selection Committee: Michigan as an eight seed? The Wolverines lost as many conference games as they won, and sported an RPI of 52 with 13 total losses. Many bracket experts had Michigan pegged on the 10 or 11 line. Missouri, for all its warts away from home, appears under-seeded with 23 total victories and has been shipped to Washington, DC to play a team that can take advantage of its weakness on the glass.
Predictions
2nd Round: Duke over Hampton, Tennessee over Michigan, Arizona over Memphis, Texas over Oakland, Cincinnati over Missouri, Connecticut over Bucknell, Penn State over Temple, San Diego State over Northern Colorado.
Sweet 16 Teams: Duke, Texas, Connecticut, San Diego State
Regional Final: Duke, San Diego State
West champion: Duke. When all else appears equal, go with the coach who has finished before. Texas has a major interior advantage on the Blue Devils, but Duke will likely be better prepared, space the floor and attack the Longhorns' big men by drawing them into the paint, leaving Ryan Kelly and Kyle Singler open for corner and wing jumpers. In the lower half, I'm banking on Kemba Walker's road-weary legs catching up with him in what amounts to a home game for the Aztecs.
SOUTHWEST REGION
Bracket Difficulty: Third out of four. Kansas head coach Bill Self admitted that his team still doesn't consistently play with the championship intensity we all saw in the dismantling of Texas in the Big 12 title game. That's dangerous, and reminiscent of the Jayhawks' attitude last season, when they came out flat against Northern Iowa and ran out of time in a frantic last- minute rally. Those memories should serve as motivation for a well-oiled machine when clicking on all cylinders. Illinois is the classic under-achiever with NBA-ready talent from top to bottom, but carelessness with the ball and a lack of defensive principles have plagued it all season. Georgetown plans to have Chris Wright back after a broken bone in his left hand left the Hoyas a man down for the better part of four games. They lost all of them, only one by single digits, and integrating him back into a struggling offense may come with its own obstacles. Purdue has been one of the nation's biggest surprises after the pre-season ACL injury to sharpshooter and veteran leader Robbie Hummel. E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson picked up the scoring slack, and Lewis Jackson added a third piece to the offensive output. Notre Dame is the third-most efficient offensive team in the nation, but its success is not just predicated on above-average shooting at each position on the floor. The Fighting Irish are unselfish, consistently make the extra pass and move the ball laterally via pass instead of with the dribble. That recipe makes it difficult for stretched-out defenses to shift, help and recover in time to get out on shooters.
Sleeper: Notre Dame's offense against Florida State's defense should make for an interesting contrast in styles, but the Seminoles don't score enough to claim this region's sleeper tag. That belongs to the Richmond Spiders, who are under-seeded by two lines and have the pieces requisite of any upset-minded team. They have the experience with three seniors who were a part of this tournament last season, solid point guard play with Kevin Anderson and an efficient, well-schooled frontline led by Justin Harper and Dan Geriot. They are also streaking with seven straight wins, including a three-point victory over Temple that avenged their last loss on February 17. The Spiders are 16th nationally in turnover percentage and guard the arc, holding opponents to a 30 percent average from long distance. That's a good quality to have when facing Vanderbilt's Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins.
Most difficult road: Louisville. The Cardinals love to push tempo, playing a frantic style that masks their interior deficiencies. They will have to deal with the nation's top rebounder, Kenneth Faried at Morehead State, in the opening round then could face Richmond's methodical Princeton-style attack in the round of 32. If they can handle those two roadblocks, top-seeded Kansas awaits in San Antonio.
Dear Selection Committee: The Spiders won 27 games, beat Purdue, and judging of their seed, appeared headed for the NIT if not for the Atlantic 10's automatic bid. By what rationale were the Spiders not already in the field? The inclusion of a 14-loss USC team brings into question the good win vs. bad loss argument. The Trojans beat Tennessee, Texas, Arizona and Washington, but lost to Rider, Bradley, TCU and Oregon State. The argument is that most of those lackluster losses came without guard Jio Fontan, but the Trojans finished just 13-10 with him.
Predictions
2nd Round: Kansas over Boston University, Illinois over UNLV, Richmond over Vanderbilt, Louisville over Morehead State, Georgetown over USC, Purdue over St. Peter's, Florida State over Texas A&M, Notre Dame over Akron.
Sweet 16 Teams: Kansas, Louisville, Purdue, Notre Dame
Regional Final: Kansas, Purdue
Southwest champion: Kansas. The Jayhawks are the head of the class in a region set up for their navigation. Illinois can't just turn its talent into productivity at this stage and the Morris twins will dominate the thin Louisville front line. In the bottom half of the region, Purdue's length on the perimeter will bother Notre Dame just enough to join the Jayhawks in the regional final, where Kansas' overall depth and talent win out for the ticket to Houston.
SOUTHEAST REGION
Bracket Difficulty: Fourth out of four. Wide open is the best way to describe a region with a top seed that has the pressure born from the ghosts of March's past, an over-seeded Florida club that shot the ball better late in the season but still goes through long spurts without perimeter production, a BYU squad still trying to find an identity without Brandon Davies and a Wisconsin outfit that lost by 28 points and scored 33 points in its last two games. Sixth- seeded St. John's is without injured starter D.J. Kennedy and traveling west to Denver, while perennial favorite Michigan State lost 14 games and ran too hot and cold for an extended stay in this region.
Sleeper: Take your pick. Utah State is the nation's 16th most efficient team, is fundamentally sound defensively and rarely beats itself. Belmont is the 18th most efficient team thanks in part to a swing offense predicated on pace and deadly outside shooting. Both teams have legitimate upset aspirations and at least one of them will score the first round's biggest shocker in Tucson. It's a shame Gus Johnson isn't slated for this pod. Both squads have already shown they can play with hefty competition this season. Utah State beat St. Mary's and Belmont lost by just nine to Vanderbilt and by a total of 10 points in two games against Tennessee.
Most difficult road: Kansas State. The Wildcats found their juice late, running off six straight victories to close the regular season before a loss to Colorado in the Big 12 Tournament. They were in my mind as a possible Elite Eight-caliber squad with Jacob Pullen's leadership and shot-making on the perimeter and a trio of big men led by Curtis Kelly on the interior. The problem is the draw. First, under-seeded Utah State waits closer to the Aggies' campus before a possible second-round matchup with Belmont. If the Wildcats survive two under-seeded mid-majors, top-seeded Pittsburgh would be next on the horizon. The Panthers have the length on the perimeter to bother Pullen and the bodies inside to control the glass and the game's pace.
Dear Selection Committee: Utah State's seeding is the most egregious in the field. The Aggies are an eight-seed in a 12-seed's clothing. Belmont is a tough seeding case because of its league affiliation, but the Bruins showed their worth against two tournament teams before the first of the year. The other seeding issue comes with Florida, which did win the SEC regular-season crown, but lost twice to Kentucky in the last three weeks.
Predictions
2nd Round: Pittsburgh over UNC Asheville, Old Dominion over Butler, Utah State over Kansas State, Belmont over Wisconsin, Gonzaga over St. John's, BYU over Wofford, Michigan State over UCLA, Florida over UC Santa Barbara
Sweet 16 Teams: Pittsburgh, Belmont, BYU, Florida
Regional Final: Pittsburgh, Florida
Southeast Champion: Pittsburgh. The Panthers are vulnerable, but are a better offensive team than they get credit for, finishing sixth nationally in offensive efficiency. Jamie Dixon has to get the monkey off his back at some point, and these Panthers have a playmaker (Brad Wanamaker) and a shooter (Ashton Gibbs) missing from their previous tournament teams. The road is also the easiest of any top seed, with potential matchups against Old Dominion, Belmont and Florida to reach the Final Four.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The en vogue word throughout this season has been "parity," but if you are a religious reader of this column, I have stated multiple times that a muddled middle was overshadowing a relatively clear upper echelon. That belief will come to fruition over the next three weeks, as several upstarts (Utah State, Belmont and Richmond) will make the headlines, while the top seeds make the noise.
Ohio State has the nation's most-balanced team. Kansas has the nation's deepest team. Duke has senior leadership and the tournament's best head coach. Pittsburgh finally has the offensive playmakers and a favorable road. All four top seeds made the Final Four in 2008, the only time it has happened in the modern tournament era. Those stars are aligning once again.
Kansas and Ohio State, by all statistical metrics and the fabled eye test, are that much better than the rest of the field. It doesn't mean either can't lose, it just means if each plays to its capability, the two will meet on the first Monday in April for the national championship.
That game will come down to the more-seasoned Morris twins flustering Jared Sullinger just enough, and freshman Josh Selby making several key plays down the stretch, helping Self win his second national title.
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