Thursday, April 14, 2011

NBA Playoff Preview - Heat vs. Sixers

For all the criticism Miami endured this season, if you look at the final standings, you will see 58 wins next to the Heat's name, a Southeast Division championship, the second seed in the Eastern Conference and a date with a banged-up, overmatched Philadelphia team in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.
Sixers point guard Jrue Holiday
Sure, Miami struggled mightily in close games and Erik Spoelstra is never going to inspire the kind of swagger big time coaches often do, but if you are not afraid of this team, something is wrong. 

With all due respect to Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant, LeBron James remains the best basketball player on the planet and Dwyane Wade is not far behind. The third member of "The Heatles," power forward Chris Bosh also quietly put together another solid season. 

With the No. 2 seed secured, Miami rested its three superstars in the regular season finale on Wednesday against Toronto and still routed the lowly Raptors, 97-79. 

It will be the role players that will likely determine Miami's fate this season and they excelled north of the border in their final tune-up as sharp- shooter Eddie House made seven three-pointers and finished with a career-high 35 points while veteran big man Juwan Howard chipped in 18 points for the Heat, whose four-game winning streak to end the season ensured they would finish with their best mark since the 2004-05. 

Philadelphia, meanwhile, captured its third playoff berth in four years under first-year head coach Doug Collins, but limped into the postseason, losing five of its final six games. 

The Sixers (41-41) also lost a chance to secure their first season above .500 since going 43-39 in 2004-05. The team did by improve by 14 wins over last season's disaster, however. 

Philadelphia's best player, Andre Iguodala, missed the final two games with right knee tendinitis and high-scoring sixth man Lou Williams has been sidelined with a strained right hamstring since April 2. 

"Those injuries put a damper on what we did this year," Collins said. 

Both Iguodala and Williams will need to be firing on all cylinders if the Sixers hope to be competitive with the Heat, who swept Philadelphia in a three-game season series in 2010-11, winning by an average of 10 points a contest. 

The teams have never met in the postseason. 

MATCHUPS: 

POINT GUARD: The Sixers think Jrue Holiday is a future star and he will need to act like it here. The book on Holiday before the 2009 draft was the cliched "raw with the huge upside." A true quarterback that thinks pass first, Holiday is generally regarded as one the top 10 defensive point guards in the league already. Experience should turn the former UCLA guard into an All-NBA defender sooner rather than later and a more consistent jumper could turn him into an All-Star. Holiday struggled a bit down the stretch offensively, however, as the Sixers relied more on him with Iguodala and Williams sidelined. 

"He is the total package," Collins said of Holiday. "He is such a good kid and such a hard worker. I honestly believe that next year you will talk about him being one of the top five point guards in the league." 

Mike Bibby has certainly seen his better days but remains one of the most experienced point guards in the East and is very familiar with the postseason. A vital piece of Sacramento's tough teams a few years back, Bibby was also arguably the best floor general in Atlanta since Mookie Blalock ran the point for the Hawks. He's lost a step and his defense is very shaky these days but he's not asked to do much in Miami and can still stick a three in a big spot. 

EDGE: SIXERS 

SHOOTING GUARD: Wade, the NBA Finals MVP in 2006 and a former scoring champion, is an athletic marvel and one of the league's best finishers around the rim. He can also handle the playmaking role, something his transition and penetration skills are tailor-made for. 

Believe or not Jodie Meeks is one of the big reasons the Sixers turned it around after a dismal 3-13 start. The book on Meeks coming out of Kentucky questioned his size, generously listed at 6-foot-4, length and defensive ability. But, the bread and butter of his game with the Wildcats was his ability to shoot the ball from the perimeter. He impressed Collins with a tireless work ethic and a willingness to address his perceived deficiencies. Meanwhile, Meeks is the only Sixer comfortable running through a thicket of screens and raising up for a jumper. 

All that said, this is still a major mismatch for Miami. 

EDGE: HEAT 

CENTER: Neither side impresses much here. Philadelphia's Spencer Hawes is a wide body with a high basketball IQ, nice shooting touch and the ability to pass from the pivot. However, Hawes leaves much to be desired as a shot- blocker and rebounder, making interior defense a big question mark for this Sixers team, especially against a team with players that can drive like James and Wade. 

Veteran Zydrunas Ilgauskas also knows how to play the game but is aging and doesn't have the physical skills to contribute much at either end these days. 

EDGE: EVEN 

SMALL FORWARD: James is an unbelievable athlete with freakish strength and size. "The King" keeps getting better and better and when the jumper is falling, he is virtually unstoppable. The only hope for the opposition is to harass James into some bad shooting nights and hope his teammates come up small. 

Against the Celtics in last year's playoffs James' energy level, lack of urgency and questionable body language when things went south showed a lack of leadership and that must improve in this year's postseason. Down the stretch, James was out of this world, averaging 30-plus points and shooting nearly 60 percent in his final 13 games. 

Iguodala is Philadelphia's best all-around player, the defensive stopper on USA Basketball's Gold Medal-winning team at the World Championships this summer and possibly the best perimeter defender in the NBA when healthy. An athletic marvel, Iguodala can stuff the stat sheet like few others. Iguodala struggled mightily down the stretch with a bad knee, however, and as always needs to stop relying so much on the jumper and become more of a slasher that can get to the free throw line when things are bogging down. 

EDGE: HEAT 

POWER FORWARD: Bosh is one of the best offensive power forwards in the game and a tremendous rebounder but he could show a little more toughness on the defensive end. That said, the former Toronto All-Star is by far the best third-option in basketball. 

Before a devastating Achilles injury Elton Brand was a horse on both ends of the floor. Collins asked the veteran to drop weight in the offseason in order to regain some quickness and take some of the pounding off his aging legs and the classy Brand did everything possible to get himself ready. The sweet mid- range stroke is back and Brand is the Sixers' best rebounder. The lift and explosion still isn't what it once was but Brand is a very effective player again. 

"For Philadelphia to have a chance against the Heat, they [can't] turn it over, they have to pack the paint and Elton Brand is really going to have to go off," NBA TV analyst Kevin McHale said. "He's going to have to dominate whatever big man they put on him, whether it's Bosh or whoever they choose to put on him. Brand is really going to have to carry the day for Philadelphia." 

EDGE: HEAT 

BENCH: The Sixers have one of the best benches in basketball led by Williams and forward Thaddeus Young. 

Williams is an extremely talented offensive player that excelled in his role as instant offense off the bench. However, whether the hamstring is OK and he will be ready to go is anyone's guess. 

Young is a natural scorer with an array of low-post moves and a feathery touch around the basket. Young was lost in Eddie Jordan's "Princeton Offense" and seemed to lose confidence last season. Collins quickly got it back by telling him to put the jumper in his hip pocket and concentrate on the paint. Young is also excellent in transition and can use his speed and quickness to torture bigger players on the block while his length is a problem with smaller defenders. Young's defense and rebounding, however, leave a lot to be desired against larger players. 

Collins will also rely on Andres Nocioni, a hard-nosed defender that competes on both ends and often gets under the skin of opponents, and rookie Evan Turner, the No. 2 overall pick in last June's draft. Turner has enormous skill but lacks confidence and will disappear when something goes wrong. 

Up front Marreese Speights and veteran Tony Battie can be called upon depending on whether the Sixers need offense (Speights) or defense (Battie). 

The Heat bench is very thin but they do have shooters in House, James Jones and Mike Miller, a trio that could hurt Philadelphia since the Sixers often have trouble closing out on shooters when they double-team.

Joel Anthony and Howard are the top options up front while Mario Chalmers gets extended minutes as Bibby's caddy. All are pedestrian players at this point of their careers. 

"I have a feeling that as the bench rotation shortens down a little in Miami, you're going to see a lot more of [Chris] Bosh at the five, LeBron [James] at the four, a couple shooters and Dwyane Wade on the floor with those guys making plays," McHale said. "But, still that's not a very big, physical, knock-you-down type of team." 

EDGE: SIXERS 

COACHING: Collins is a top candidate for Coach of the Year and his basketball knowledge is without peer. Great coaches in any sport maximize the strengths of the talent they have on hand while masking as many of the deficiencies as possible and Collins excels at that. 

"You have to give a shout-out to Doug Collins," former Sixer Chris Webber recently said. "He's got his guys playing and he's definitely in the Coach of the Year race this year." 

Spoelstra, a Riley disciple, first joined the Heat in 1995 as the team's video coordinator and moved up from there. He helped the team bounce back from an ugly 15-67 mark in 2007-08 and, like Riley, preaches defense and conditioning. He, however, doesn't seem to be all that well respected by his own players. 

"They still rely so much on their great stars," NBA TV analyst Greg Anthony said. "They have not developed their supporting cast the way I would have liked. I've always said that Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers do a great job of making sure they use the regular season to prepare for the postseason and I didn't see the same type of performance beyond Dwyane [Wade], LeBron [James] and Chris [Bosh]." 

EDGE: SIXERS 

PREDICTION: The Heat are thin but when they do lose, they generally beat themselves. Meanwhile, two of the Sixers top players are hurting badly. If the Heat are clicking early, all the Sixers will be able to do is hold on for dear l 

"To me, when Miami turns up their defense, they get turnovers especially on the perimeter and above the free-throw line," McHale said. "They are off and running and I think they become the most explosive team in the league. They're attacking and getting after it. They look really good." 

HEAT in 4 

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