Rome wasn't built in a day

By Michael Rushton

Quick question for all you NBA draft junkies.

What's the biggest gamble in the draft?

Who to actually take with your first-round selection or having an actual top-five pick?

I'd argue that it's having an upper-tier pick.

The National Basketball Association is stuck in a rut and it all starts with the young talent that comes in via the draft.

Take the National Football League, the only other big-four league that doesn't have an established minor-league system. When your team has a pick in the top five, you expect that player to be a starter and solid contributor by year's end. Even if it's a quarterback Mr. Alex Smith.

Not so in the NBA. Most times, teams with the higher picks are forced to draft on potential rather then immediate impact, pushing teams into a loop of brutalness.

Very rarely do can't miss prospects like LeBron James come around. So if you happen to have a high pick during the now frequent "mediocre talent" drafts the NBA seems to be holding at an alarming rate year after year, its tough to judge what you are getting.

Every draft has its busts, but not many have as many gambles as the NBA due to the young, unproven talent. After all, if I head down the street and churn out some dominating performances at my local YMCA, what does that prove? It's tough to measure my talent based on some performances where I'm playing people no where near my skill level.

And just so we're clear, I get schooled at the "Y" but that's a different story.

Yet, year after year, media hype and some amateur video of a 6-foot-8 forward dunking on a bunch of fellow high school kids who may be more concerned with the results of their last geometry test than the game itself is all some teams are given.

Someone like Tyrus Thomas, just coming off his freshman year at LSU, might not reach his full potential for another three years (the exact time he would have finished college by the way). So, lets say he falls to the fifth pick in this year's draft where Atlanta would obviously need him to step in right away.

However, it is very possible Thomas doesn't contribute right away and Atlanta is stuck in the bottom of the standings for at least another year as their "impact player" continues to develop while taking up a roster spot and a piece of the salary cap.

In fact, by the time Thomas finally reaches his potential, he may be eligible to leave as a free agent where a team that can wait even another year for him to grow will throw money at him.
Or, the Hawks get sick of waiting for Thomas and deal him for an expiring contract or someone else's headache.

Let me give you the best piece of evidence I can give you to support my hypothesis: Kwame Brown.

Brown was grabbed by the Washington Wizards with the first overall pick in 2001 and in the process became the first high school player ever selected with the first overall pick in the draft.

Brown went on to start three games his rookie year. Three starts out of your No. 1 overall pick, who averaged 4.5 points a game that season. At least he helped run Michael Jordan out of town, who by the way, couldn't even make Brown look like a player.

Washington has since shipped Brown to Los Angeles where he comes off the Lakers' bench.

The 76ers pick 13th this year. Kobe Bryant was drafted by the Charlotte Hornets -- and later traded to the Lakers -- in 1996 13th overall. The Lakers could afford to wait for Bryant, who didn't become a regular starter until is third season. And we all know how that turned out.

You can reach Michael Rushton at rushpac@msn.com


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Copyright 2006 The Phanatic