The Phanatic Magazine
And now some words from your Resident Stick-In-The-Mud…
What’s going on here? Where is all this optimism coming from? While we made the smooth transition to accepting mediocrity and ineptitude, respectively, for our Sixers and Flyers, and while others continue to battle with their Jeff Garcia Kool-Aid aftertaste in Eagle-land, something strange began to occur with fans of the losingest franchise in sport:
They began to believe.
I’m not sure exactly how this began to take hold. There was that nice little September run sans Bobby Abreu last year. There was that offseason where we…um… well, more on that later.
I find it somewhat amusing when, in years past, a team executive offered hope to the masses, we instantly shrugged him off, figuring it to be just another “Boy Cries Wolf” plea in a 124-year portfolio chock full of them.
Meanwhile, the Phils’ current architect, Pat Gillick, is known as one of the better minds in the game, a general manager of two World Series Champions and another team which set a record for most wins in a season.
Last year, Gillick told us not to expect much in 2007 as he continues to find ways to work with a roster hamstrung with bad contracts and no-trade clauses (and Ed Wade staple).
But Jeff, you say, things have changed! The players took the remark as a personal affront and have risen to the occasion. Offseason moves reflect an effort to put the team in a position to put October vacation plans on hold. And, to be frank, Gillick was essentially playing up to the natural mentality of the area’s sports fans: Confirm our negative expectations and perhaps you can pleasantly surprise us later on.
So was this just a case of crafty reverse psychology?
For the past month and change, my colleagues at The Phanatic Magazine have fueled the common fan’s hopes and kept the Kool-Aid flowing beyond the gridiron. You have been given one less than a few dozen “reasons to believe,” in the form of the elements that comprise this year’s cast of players.
Now allow me to say that these reasons can very well pan out. This is certainly not a squad - a la the late 80’s or late 90’s - that was essentially eliminated from contention by mid-April. They have a reigning MVP in our 1B, another candidate in our 2B, a sparkplug of a SS. The three of them alone will make the Phillies TiVo-worthy on a regular basis.
However, where my confusion lies – as my natural Philly-skepticism sets in – is, what makes expectations so much higher than they were a year ago at this time?
So, I present to you, the reader, 10 Reasons to Be-Leery:
1. Staff overhype.
You know that starting rotation everyone keeps touting? Well, not one of them has an career ERA below 4. That includes sixth-man-in-waiting (and former staff ace) Jon Lieber. It also happens to include offseason acquisition Freddy Garcia. For those keeping score, Garcia had a 2006 ERA closer to 5 than 4. I’m just saying…
2. Unproven entities.
Opening Day 2006 featured a former All-Star and Gold Glove recipient starting at both RF and catcher (Bobby Abreu and Mike Lieberthal, respectively) and a former NL Championship Series MVP at 3B (The juicin’ David Bell). Come Opening Day 2007, those positions will be filled by not one player who has started a full season in his career, even though two of them – 3B Wes Helms and C Rod Barajas – are on the wrong side of 30 years old. By the time Lieberthal booked his flight back home to Southern California, for many, he couldn’t have flown out of town fast enough. Regardless, we basically knew what to expect of the former all-star and Gold Glove recipient, who was actually the longest-tenured Philly athlete by the time of his departure. Can we really say we know exactly what to expect from Helms, Barajas or Shane Victorino.
3. Remember that reason we kept using why we weren’t able to get over the hump?
Or let me pose another question: How is our relief pitching looking now? How confident do we truly feel to rely on any one guy in the sixth inning and beyond? How much faith do we have in our injury-prone closer, Tom Gordon, the one creeping ever closer to both retirement and Social Security?
4. Now batting fifth and starting in left field… wait, that hasn’t changed, either. So which Pat Burrell will show up most to Citizens Bank Park this year? Burrell has witnessed so many called third strikes at inopportune times that, at times, he could be just as effective buying a ticket as a spectator. And, remember, it looks as if he’s being counted on to be the protection for our reigning MVP.
5. And yeah, Howard’s great… but 2006 great?
Speaking of, is anyone outside of Kool-Aid Land actually betting on Ryan Howard putting up similar numbers to his insane 2006? First, pitchers will certainly be giving him the Barry Bonds Treatment much more frequently (especially considering who’s on deck – see Previous Reason). Secondly, history dictates that, unless your name starts with “George Herman” and ends with “Ruth,” or unless it’s the past decade and you’re annually under suspicion for using steroids (of which Howard is neither), it is not wise to bank on consecutive 58-homer seasons.
6. Uncle Charlie still writes out the lineup cards.
Don’t know about you, but every time I see Charlie Manuel interviewed on television, I think one of two things: Drunken Hillbilly, or President of the United States of America. Either way, I don’t have much faith in his abilities, other than to keep a happy, loose clubhouse. People: He batted Howard 7th last year as late as May!
7. Sure, it’s only Spring Training, but…
Was there anything done in Clearwater this year that made you feel any better about this club as it made its way back north? Considering the slow start out of the gate in recent Aprils (which many have laid blame to its ultimate failure to reach the playoffs), it would have been nice to have seen some semblance of momentum to build off of.
8. Whatever you do, starters… don’t get hurt!
Anyone fearing the bench players this season? Abraham Nunez – as good a defensive player as he may be – had to struggle mightily just to get over the Mendoza Line last year. Jayson’s “Werth” has dropped exponentially in recent years. And the three others have a handful of major league at bats between them and may just be happy to be here. Anyone missing that veteran presence of Jeff Conine?
9. Meet the Mets... Beat the Mets?
The NL East gave us a new division champ not named the Braves for the first time since, well, the Phillies. With a deep veteran presence and deep pockets in the front office, the Mets will not be so quick to relent.
10. 1993 is still 1993.
Which is the last year the Phillies made the playoffs. Which has been followed by a few other years of high expectations. But which is still 14 years ago, and certainly far in the rearview mirror.
But… that was a year where many did not expect much. It turned out to be a year to remember. 14 years from now, the hope is that 2007 proves similar results… and that the natural Philly naysayers (some, ahem, might call them realists) are swept under the carpet of celebration.
But I’m just saying…
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