35 Reasons to Believe

By Michael Rushton
The Phanatic Magazine

Season Preview

It’s the final countdown.

Not the awesome Europe song that serves as GOB’s unofficial theme song on “Arrested Development,” but the countdown to Opening Day that at the time of publication, was less than two hours away.

Fans haven’t been this excited for the start of the Phillies season in a long time. Long gone is the seemingly incompetent Ed Wade and new general manager Pat Gillick has already put his stamp on this club.

Gone are Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Mike Lieberthal and Randy Wolf. In are Freddy Garcia, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas and Adam Eaton. These additions, along with Philadelphia’s homegrown talent and other transactions, have made the Phils a popular pick to grab a playoff spot if not win the NL East outright.

You’ve read closely as The Phanatic Magazine showed you each player expected to make an impact -- and some who didn't pan out. Now, let’s see how the club stacks up as a whole.

Infield: Few teams in the National League possess an infield as good as the Philadelphia Phillies. Led by the reigning NL MVP, Ryan Howard, the Phils’ infield has a lot of power and can hit for average as well. Howard, of course, is the big deep threat. Last year’s home run derby champ clubbed a franchise record 58 home runs -- breaking Mike Schmidt’s 1980 club record -- and his 149 RBI were the highest by a Fightin’ since Chuck Klein’s 170 in 1930, the current franchise record. Both Howard’s home run and RBI total led the majors.

Also grabbing some of the spotlight is second baseman Chase Utley. Utley brings a lot of power to the second base position and his .309 average last season makes him the perfect table setter for Howard. Utley will also swipe his fair share of bases, making him arguably the best second baseman in the entire league.

Together, Howard and Utley are the perfect blend of power and contact (Howard hit .313 last season) and make up the best right side of the infield in the majors. Throw in shortstop Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies infield boosts three potential All-Stars.

Rollins made waves when he proclaimed the Phillies the team to beat this year in the division, and he will once again try to take that one last step to becoming a complete leadoff hitter.

Already spectacular with the glove and possessing power from the leadoff spot, Rollins is just a .266 career hitter in April, but hits at a .289 clip in September. A fast start and less strikeouts will vault Rollins to the top of the list in regards to leadoff hitters.

Wes Helms presents the weakest link in the Phils’ infield, especially defensively, but has never been a full-time starter and is a better hitting option than Abraham Nunez.

Overall Rating: A -

Outfield: The Phillies outfield is one of potential, and it all starts in left field. The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde known as Pat Burrell must pick an identity this year. Burrell, the most talked about topic this season after Howard’s bat and Utley’s contract, has power but is perhaps lacking the mental strength. His strikeout numbers are too high for his production, and his inability to drive in runners in scoring position last season was well documented.

Burrell must do a better job this year if he is to protect Howard in the lineup.

Aaron Rowand brings his heart and dedication back to the field. Rowand’s hustle twice led to drawbacks last season, as two separate collisions (one with a wall and one with Utley) sidelined him last year. Rowand’s name has come up a lot more than it should in trade discussions, but the intangibles he brings to the table make up for the few deficiencies in his game. Expect more than last year’s .262 average.

Shane Victorino begins the season as the starter in right field. While not possessing the power that a right fielder should, he is a spark plug none the less and should become more dangerous on the base paths under the guidance of first base coach Davey Lopes.

Overall, each position in Philadelphia’s outfield brings a different element to the table in the form of Burrell’s power, Rowand’s leadership and contact, and Victorino’s speed and scrappiness.

Overall Rating: B

Catcher and Bench: Barajas and Carlos Ruiz will split time at the catching position. The Phillies would like nothing more than for Ruiz to develop at the plate and continue his solid defensive play as well. However, in case he fails to come along at a good pace, the Phillies brought in a veteran in Barajas as a safety net. Barajas may fair well at Citizens Bank Park as he hit 11 homers in just 97 games last year.

The Phillies bench is interesting to say the least, but not deep. Nunez will see the most time in the field of the group, mostly as a defensive replacement for Helms, but he should get some starts every now and then as well.

It was nice to see outfielder Jayson Werth make the roster if only for the fact that he is trying to resurrect a career derailed by injury. He played in 101 games with the Dodgers in 2005, but missed all of last season due to a wrist injury.

The final two names on the bench spark the most interest.

Greg Dobbs, a former Mariner, came out of nowhere to win an Opening Day spot, and wasn't even one of the 35 players profiled by The Phanatic Magazine. This year’s Chris Coste (Coste will start the year on the DL and may be given a spot when he returns) batted .358 in spring and belted five homers with a team-leading 20 RBI.

Michael Bourn rounds out the bench and is my pick as the player who could have the biggest impact. However, that impact could come in the front office. If Bourn puts together a good season and meets the expectations the team has for him to eventually take over in center field, the club could move Rowand this year before the deadline. Rowand is a free agent at the end of the season.

Overall Rating: C

Starting Pitching: The Phils’ rotation is as deep as it has ever been. The additions of Garcia and Eaton to complement ace Brett Myers, young lefty Cole Hamels, and rock-solid veteran Jamie Moyer gives the club a solid starting five.

Myers went through a tough stretch last season that involved a certain incident in Boston, but has shown nothing but growth and maturity so far this season. With the addition of Garcia (17-9 last season with the White Sox) the Phillies have a one-two punch that could win 40 games.

Hamels is the most unproven of the bunch, but showed what he can do last season with a 9-8 mark and 145 strikeouts in 132 1/3 innings. His devastating off-speed stuff will baffle hitters all season. Moyer will provide the kind of guidance Myers and Hamels will need once the team reaches the postseason. The 44-year-old will serve as a positive influence on the rest of the Phils staff, and can still win 12-14 games.

Eaton should shore up the rotation as long as he stays healthy. Interestingly enough, it is Garcia and the man Eaton bumped out of the rotation, Jon Lieber, who begin the season on the DL, not Eaton. However, if the righty doesn’t stay healthy, his signing could be a black mark on Gillick’s resume.

Overall Rating: A

Bullpen: Undoubtedly will be the club’s Achilles Heel all season. Tom Gordon was effective last year (34 saves), but also went through a dead-arm phase, and at 39 there is no reason to expect it not to happen again this year. Also, if something does happen to Gordon, the Phillies don’t have a sure choice to replace him.

That role would most likely go to Ryan Madson, who had a good spring and will serve as the eighth inning setup guy. Madson and Geoff Geary both had solid springs, especially Madson with his 1.69 earned run average, and may surprise people with how well they shorten games out of the bullpen.

However, after those three, the pen gets shakey. Matt Smith is the lone lefty and was rocked to the tune of a 7.50 ERA this spring, and it is hard to tell how much soon-to-be 35-year-old Antonio Alfonseca has left in the tank.

Righties Clay Condrey and Zack Segovia will complete the bullpen after winning jobs out of spring, though one should return to Triple-A when Lieber comes off the DL. However, it is very hard to see Lieber sticking around in the bullpen for too long. He is still likely to get traded any day now unless the Phillies are concerned about Garcia or Eaton getting hurt early.

Overall Rating: D

Overview: On paper, the Phillies should be able to compete with the Mets, and get the edge because of their pitching staff. However, titles are not won on paper.

Not everything needs to go right for Philadelphia, but a nasty combination of the following could quickly derail them.

A given for any team is that their pitching staff must stay healthy. While the club is six deep, it is very thin after that and one or two injuries can not be filled from within the organization. Also, Burrell must hit and Victorino needs to put it together over a full season. Don’t worry about the infield (Howard, Utley, Rollins), they will be fine.

The team must also avoid a slow start. A poor April and May most certainly means manager Charlie Manuel is out the door, and Lieber and Rowand will be dealt sooner than later. The team would also continue to try and move Burrell as well.

However, a Philadelphia club making its first World Series appearance since 1993 is far more likely.

You just have to believe.

Below is staff predictions for the upcoming season. The first three are division champs, followed by wild card winners.

NL

Michael Rushton: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Braves
Tim McManus: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets
Eric Redner: Phillies, Cubs, Giants, Mets
Jared Trexler: Mets, Brewers, Padres, Phillies
Steve Lienert: Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Mets
John Gottlieb: Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies
John McMullen: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets

AL

Rushton: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox
McManus: Yankees, Tigers, Athletics, Red Sox
Redner: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Yankees
Trexler: Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Tigers
Lienert: Red Sox, Twins, Athletics, Yankees
Gottlieb: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox
McMullen: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Tigers

World Series:

Rushton: Angels over Cubs
McManus: Tigers over Dodgers
Redner: Red Sox over Phillies
Trexler: Angels over Padres
Lienert: Mets over Red Sox
Gottlieb: Angels over Dodgers
McMullen: Dodgers over Yankees

Optimism only goes so far as none of The Phanatic Magazine staffers picked the Phillies to reach the World Series sans Redner, who has the club losing to the Red Sox.

With regards to the Phils, of the six staffers who posted picks as of 11:30 a.m. (et), Redner, Gottlieb and Lienert predict Utley to be the team's MVP, while Trexler and Rushton like Myers. McManus is the only one with sense, and went with Howard.

On the negative side, both Rushton and McManus feel Eaton will be Philadelphia's biggest disappointment, while Redner (Helms), Trexler (Gordon), Gottlieb (Burrell) and Lienert (Burrell) all see different.

Interestinly enough, all six writers feel Manuel will make it through the entire season as the manager, though Lienert predicts his exit at season's end.